Going into the draft, I really want to get a sense of what the skill-sets are of the top backs in the 2020 class and how they win. This gives me a good idea of what their potential role is in the NFL and their potential range of outcomes. The grades in this article are my prospect film grades, they’re not necessarily fantasy/dynasty rankings. I go deeper into the dynasty aspect once I have the final pieces of the puzzle: Draft capital (DC) and landing spot (LS).
DC shows the type of opportunity they are going to be given by the team that drafts them. The higher the DC, the more chances they’ll get to prove their value. As important as DC is, LS is more important in my eyes. A clear path to volume is one of the most important factors to take into account when evaluating rookie running backs, especially if the draft capital isn’t there. Some backs can overcome bad landing spots, a lot don’t.
Once I have the DC and LS information, I will dive a bit deeper into the prospects that got more DC than I expected and those who landed in the best spots. For now however, I’m focusing on the player evaluation.
I want to be super-open and transparent about my process: Normally I write notes, but don’t have a specific metric grade. With this class, I wanted to do it a bit different and implement an actual grading system. This will likely be tweaked a fair bit in the future, but I wanted to put what I was seeing on tape into metrics so that it was easier for me to compare backs.
For each running back I watched between four and six games from the 2019 season. I then scored each back on all of the most important attributes that make up a running back. Below is each metric and a few words describing them (metrics aren’t in priority order).
EVALUATED ATTRIBUTES
Mental Processing – Their overall decision making.
Vision – How they the anticipate creases and defenders in advance.
Tight Space Efficiency – How they move through condensed boxes.
Play Speed – Overall play speed, not just straight line.
Burst – Initial, first-step explosiveness.
Change of Direction – Lateral agility, and how well they can change path.
Cut Burst – How quickly they can acceleration out of cuts.
Make You Miss – One-on-one, can they make defenders miss.
Power – Do they play with power, upper- and lower-body.
Contact Balance – How well they can maintain balance through contact.
Receiving – How well they can contribute in the passing game; routes, hands, plus potential.
Pass Protection – How well can they hold their own (and willingness).
ATTRIBUTE SCORES
10 – Elite
9 – High End
8 – Very Good
7 – Good
6 – Worrying
5 – Terrible
Once I have all of this information, these attributes are broken down into categories that are weighted differently and make up the overall film grade. I have also allocated a draft round grade to each running back based on my evaluation as well which are below.
DRAFT ROUND GRADES
1st Round: 9-10 Film Grade
2nd Round: 8-9 Film Grade
3rd Round: 7.5-8 Film Grade
4th Round: 7-7.5 Film Grade
5th-6th Round: 6.5-7 Film Grade
UDFA: 0-6.5 Film Grade
In terms of how this class ranks, I would say it’s as close to 2017 as I can remember. Will it reach that level? We’ll see in a few years. Does it have that potential? It could get close.
Enough of the process, let’s get into the prospects.
You don’t get many backs with Jonathan Taylor‘s level of all-around game coming into drafts. His mental processing is extremely advanced and his decision making is outstanding. He is very patient behind his lineman, knows when to stay with the crease and when to take things outside. He rarely takes a bad play; he knows when to live and die with small gains.
Has a very seasoned decisiveness to his game in the way he sets up defenders and moves through each level of the defense. Really refined ability to navigate through traffic, he consistently takes calculated running paths with super efficient lateral agility and burst. Really light feet with no wasted movement, he has that phone booth ability to make linebackers miss in the hole and the burst to take creases to the house.
Taylor has the explosive speed, but also knows how to vary this through in heavy boxes. His body is extremely developed physically and has demonstrated the ability to handle a huge workload very well without wearing down. He is a very durable and dependable player. Lower-body is explosive and powers through contact. He isn’t super-creative when things are blocked up and I believe he can play a lot stronger.
Has a lot of experience in different run schemes and can contribute in the passing game. Doesn’t seem to be the most natural receiver, but his physical tools and mindset will allow him to execute at an adequate level, with solid route-running that improved in his final season. The drops and fumbles aren’t ideal, but I think he’ll be able to fix these.
Overall, Taylor is a highly refined all round back with as much experience as you could ask for coming into the NFL. Projects as a true workhorse and every-down back with the potential to build an entire offense around. Extremely safe prospect and no-brainer RB1 for the class.
Explosive is the world I would use to best describe D’Andre Swift. He isn’t your traditional, smooth, down-hill runner. He has the best all-around game of the class and can beat defenses in many different ways. Mentally, Swift is where you want him to be; makes greats decisions and runs with great vision, able to find and create creases through defenses with sudden bursts of sharp cuts.
His lateral agility is super-explosive, pairs perfectly with great footwork and acceleration. There is a real finesse with his game and how he uses his body. Has an extremely high speed change-of-direction and the feet to force miss tackles at any level of the defense. Great peripheral vision when running from the gun and runs just as well when in single back. Experienced zone runner.
Displays great patience with a confidence in knowing he can cut at any angle. Very thick frame, super strong through contact and can get the tough yards inside when needed. The level of his physicality really shows in his pass protection, and he is able to absorb a great amount of contact.
The most impressive part of his game his is receiving ability. He is a very detailed receiver with great route running and an ability to contribute at a really high level in the passing game. I’m confident he can be a three-down back in the NFL and perform at a very high level. With how NFL team’s are valuing backs for today’s game, I won’t be surprised if he ends up being the first back to hear his name called.
Cam Akers is very interesting evaluation. He is an extremely strong and explosive back who was held back by one of the worst offensive lines in college football. His mental processing isn’t amazing, but he displays enough vision and patience to create for himself in an extremely negative environment.
He has sudden cutting ability with explosive power and acceleration. Has the ability to force a lot of missed tackles. Sometimes trusts his lateral ability a bit too much as while after being forced to consistently make the worst out of a bad situation. Has great acceleration and burst when he is able to locate a crease.
Very smooth runner in space with great speed. Very strong athletically and his lower body is well-built. Willing back into contact and is able to absorb a lot without it making a significant impact. Finished runs extremely strong and never went down without a fight. Upper-body also very strong with an ability to throw defenders off.
Showed the ability to contribute in the passing game and was very natural as a receiver. It is hard to evaluate how developed he is for the NFL after three years at Florida State and having played quarterback in high school; new to the position. I do think that his situation will only help his transition to the pros, however, as his blocking is counter-intuitively going to get better in NFL.
Overall, I think Akers has one of the highest ceilings of this class. I believe he has three-down potential and can be a feature back in an NFL offense. He might be more raw than you would like, but I think he has all of the tools to excel at an extremely high level.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s game is built off explosive lateral agility and great burst out of of his cuts. He does both of these at an elite level. His tight space efficiency and vision is extremely impressive. He makes very good decisions, knows how to be patient, and utilizes a full arsenal of cuts to find creases through the defense.
His lack of speed certainly doesn’t help his evaluation, but his initial burst and explosiveness out of his cuts are near-elite which will both translate really well to the NFL. Has a spring-like movement out of any break at any direction from a stand still. This allows him to move behind blocks really well and press the line of scrimmage. He is able to cover ground laterally better than most backs I’ve seen.
He has a smaller frame and his strength through contact is something that is going to limit his upside, but with the way he wins it’s not absolutely essential. Edwards-Helaire’s pass blocking is terrible which will need to addressed immediately. He has really good ability to vary his frame through traffic, and he understands how to stay low (being 5-7 helps), and set second-level defenders up behind his blockers.
Overall, he has explosive tools to succeed, but the ceiling does have a cap due to a lack of speed and play strength. His elite laterally agility and burst will allow him to be successful in the NFL, but his ability to contribute in the passing game at a very high level is what many teams will focus on. Belief is he can become a true, three-down feature back in the NFL.
J.K. Dobbins is a smaller, compact runner, but a very mature back with a lot of experience. He has the ability to vary his pace when he bursts through the hole; disciplined runner with great instincts, excellent footwork, and can change direction at speed. He is very light on his feet and has the ability to eat up yards very quickly with great burst.
Has good ability to reduce body frame as he navigates through traffic, but isn’t a huge lateral runner in tight space. His game is down-hill, finding creases and breaking big gains. When he is able to work through a crease, he has the long-speed to take runs to the house. My only concern is these how much tougher and tighter these creases are going to be in the NFL.
Physically, he isn’t imposing and won’t break a ton of tackles, but he is very compact through traffic, so he is able to avoid a lot of impact. He is extremely willing to get physical when needed. He is very patient runner when needed, displays ability to ride out a plays in their gap schemes and can slash through a defense in their zone game. Very sound decision-making. Contributed well as a receiver, but wasn’t a huge part of Ohio State’s passing game.
Dobbins doesn’t have a high-end lateral agility like others in the class and won’t force a ton of missed tackles, but he did prove to have the ability to carry a workhorse load to great success in college. He will need a team to be willing to build their run game around him and his strengths for him to succeed as a full-time back.
Eno Benjamin is a very versatile athlete with a great ability to make defenders miss at the first two levels of the defense and can contribute at an adequate level in both the running and passing game. Does well at creating for himself and is very creative at making defenders miss.
He displays a great ability to cut laterally and move through tight space, but can get caught dancing a tad too much. Smart coaching will clean this up. He isn’t necessarily slow, but isn’t super-fast either. He has good burst out of his cuts, but lacks high=end speed and isn’t going to outrun third level defenders.
Benjamin is very smart when he goes into contact. Has an ability to gain extra yards by contouring his body against the momentum of the defender. Runs with more physicality than his frame suggests. Isn’t punishing, but runs very strong with power. Displays good contact balance but can tend to offset this sometimes when he leans forward too much.
Overall he approaches the game with great versatility. Hits inside short yardage situations with burst and physicality, knows how to make people miss and is a plus in the passing game. Lacks some explosives and top-end speed, but has the tools to contribute on all three downs in the NFL.
Joshua Kelley is a very well-rounded running back without major holes in his game. He is a smart runner who understand how to find paths through the first two levels of a defense. Displays super-efficient cutting ability and great vision to work through tight space.
Has all of the physical tools to do well in most situations, but doesn’t really do any of them at an elite, standout level. Was utilized in various schemes and overall, he seemed comfortable throughout; whether that was patient running and cutting through gap schemes, or running down-hill and cutting back on zone runs.
He is a strong, inside runner who commits to contact and finishing runs. Displays good contact balance at point of attack, and can break tackles at a good rate. Display the ability to really be relied upon under a heavy workload at school.
Displays really good peripheral vision when things aren’t blocked and has enough lateral agility to create for himself which not all the backs in the class can. Really good burst out of his cuts and breaks. Can change direction at speed. I wouldn’t say he has elite speed, but he manages to break some big runs with his burst.
I think Kelley can succeed in the NFL with his diverse skill set. He isn’t an elite bell cow but I believe he has the ability to execute in a lot of different schemes. Not sure he will get the Draft Capital, but I think he will surprise early in his career and isn’t as landing spot dependent as other backs.
Zack Moss has a solid, compact body and bruising play style. He is extremely strong through contact and top of the class in terms of ability to absorb contact and maintain balance. He utilizes his body extremely well with contact, falls forward, and avoids unnecessary contact.
He is able to run down-hill quite well and has very efficient movement through the first two levels. Has good burst through the hole and has enough efficient lateral agility to navigate through crease in the defense, but his overall change of direction isn’t great. His lack of lateral agility and lateral burst hurt his NFL evaluation. There are a lot of plays he made in college that he wouldn’t have a chance of making in the pros.
He is very good zone runner where he makes quick decisions and takes his angle. His mental processing is very solid; he understands how to move through the first- and second-levels and has a natural feel for skinny movement. He will suit a team that wants to control the ball and run downhill. He showed a natural ability to be a contributor in the passing game, which teams will like.
I think a certain teams will view him as a safe and steady three down back, but some wouldn’t go near him. In my eyes, defenders at the next level will be able to neutralize his strengths more than other backs and the jump in speed will cause him problems. In the end, if a team really commits to him, he could experience success.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn is an extremely powerful runner. Arm and poor-form tackles don’t stand a chance against him. Very hard-nosed into contact and is super-tough. Really strong lower-half with the power to explode out of cuts and burst into gear. His burst and speed combo is at a really high level; will blow past first- and second-level defenders with speed and has the ability to out run third-level defenders as well.
Has efficient linear cutting ability through tight space, but isn’t creative when things are blocked up; doesn’t have the greatest lateral agility. Has straight line burst, but the same burst isn’t there with sharp changes of direction. He displays good patience and really thrived with physicality running down-hill.
Contributed better than I though he would in the passing game, but it didn’t seem very natural. He is coming into the league as a 23-year old after returning to Vanderbilt for his senior year (after sitting out the 2017 season).
I believe he is better suited to early-down work which I think he could execute at a high-level, but he isn’t as well-rounded as a lot of the other backs in the class. Vanderbilt did a great job at utilizing his skill-set and is likely going to end up working in a committee as their power runner.
Darrynton Evans is a down-hill runner who thrives off one-cut creases. He displays great burst, top-end speed, and the ability to blow past all three levels of the defense. He displays nice cuts at speed and can make defenders miss without slowing down. Outstanding kick returner.
He is an absolute weapon when a lane or open space is presented. The only problem is this isn’t always the case, and when there’s heavy traffic, there isn’t a big amount of make-you-miss or broken tackles. At times he displays functional strength, but it isn’t super-consistent. Frame is on the lighter side and his BMI (Body Mass Index) is the lowest of this group.
He has an efficient level of cutting, but I wouldn’t say he ton of lateral agility, especially through tight space and traffic. He is an incredible fit for a mid-wide zone team; thrives when he can spot a gap, make one cut, and explode through it as the offensive and defensive lines move laterally and holes appear. Able to contribute well in the passing game which makes his big play ability extremely valuable.
Overall, Evans is an explosive back with game-changing ability, but his transition to the NFL will rely on a team focusing their run scheme around his skill-set. He will thrive in a very sound offensive scheme that reduces box counts and creates a lot of crease in the run game. I think he ends up as an committee back, but will have games where he is the lead and his explosiveness is relied on to open game plans right up.
SUMMARY
This year’s class has a chance to be special even with Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State), Najee Harris (Alabama), and Travis Etienne (Clemson) all returning to school.
In terms of how the 2020 class ranks, and comparing the group as a whole to year’s previous, I would say it’s as close to 2017 as I can remember. Will it reach that level? We’ll see in a few years. Does it have that potential? It could get close. A lot of these backs have a ton of potential, but once you go past the top five, the flaws start to become a bit more fatal.
As I mentioned at the beginning, draft capital and landing spot are huge pieces of the puzzle in many cases. Once we have these dots connected, we will start to get a really good idea of what this classes (early) impact could look like.
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