Redrafting With Ryan: Final Top-200 PPR Rankings

     Editor’s Note 1: Torn ACL now confirmed for RB Lamar Miller. Remove him from your lists. RB Duke Johnson moves up to RB28 in a corresponding move. (RB Damarea Crockett earns a bump as well, up to RB68.) The Texans will likely sign or trade for another runner before the season starts.

     Editor’s Note 2: QB Andrew Luck retires. WR T.Y. Hilton slips down to WR26, WR Devin Funchess falls to WR72, WR Parris Campbell slides to WR77 (which still may be generous), TE Eric Ebron is down to TE23, and TE Jack Doyle ticks up to TE26. On the running back side: RB Marlon Mack slips to RB25 and RB Nyheim Hines has climbed to RB39. QB Jacoby Brissett moves up to QB28, and can be streamed in spots.

     Nothing earth-shattering here, right? Entering drafts, you want a top-3 selection. You want to target one of the top three backs, where you’re basically splitting hairs. Top-4 makes sense, too, assuming Elliott signs. (My guess is he gets paid right before the season starts, in the “eleventh hour” or something.) Then, we’re gobbling up all the wideouts. Hill sneaks into the Top 12 after walking away with no punishment from the league, returning to the NFL’s most explosive offense.

     The TE1 makes an appearance here. I thought Kelce was a first-round selection prior to the Hill news, which effectively lowers Kelce’s ceiling, if only slightly. The other observation is the abundance of running backs in this tier. These are your bell cows. “Zero RB” is always the name of the game but walking away with two elite runners at this point makes a lot of sense, too. The receiver depth this year is exploitable, which you will soon see in the early to middle rounds.

     Johnson is going to carry the load in Detroit, but just lost his starting center. Likewise, Jacobs, the rookie, gets the shot at all the volume in Jon Gruden’s retooled offense. His ability as a pass catcher is notable, and had folks looking past the lackluster collegiate production. Carson is the lead back in the NFC’s heaviest run team despite an early draft selection at running back a year prior. Freeman is completely healthy, behind an improved offensive line, with no more RBBC pressure, in one of the league’s best offenses. How long will the health remain on his side?

     Golladay enjoyed a breakout of sorts last season, and is back for more as the locked-in WR1. Boyd should benefit from A.J. Green‘s absence, coming off his own breakout campaign and a new contract. Lockett also stands alone as Seattle’s WR1, and looks to continue his efficient relationship with stud quarterback Russell Wilson. The Titans rode Henry down the stretch and look to install that same game plan for 2019. Sanders will be the Eagles’ RB1 sooner vs. later. He’s been the most talented runner in camp throughout the summer. The Godwin rocket ship took off some time a month or two back and is still ascending, we’re told.

     We have highlighted this tier often, through written content and podcasts alike. It’s my favorite; a couple of possible league-winners are staring at you. You can splurge on early running backs knowing you have priority targets on Kirk, Moore, and Samuel in the mid-rounds. Howard and Henry can anchor your tight end spot(s); both are looking at breakout seasons. If you opt for quarterback early, here’s where you can roll with one in either Watson or Mahomes (not advised, but I get it). Landry should benefit from running across former college teammate and certified stud Odell Beckham Jr.

     Coleman has a grip on the RB1 spot in San Francisco. Ekeler rockets up this board when/if the Melvin Gordon deal doesn’t get done and/or drags out. Gordon, Super Bowl ring and all, was granted his reinstatement and rejoins Tom Brady, running as an upside WR2. Shepard gets to wear the WR1 hat post-Beckham. Westbrook is the Jaguars’ WR1, and a clear favorite of new signal-caller Nick Foles. White was a monster through the air last season out of the backfield — but Michel, early injury concerns aside, looks to be healthier through a few preseason contests and ready to have a bigger role.

     Wentz was getting early MVP-buzz; the Eagles offense remains loaded. Lewis is backing up Henry, and carries standalone value given his ability as a receiver. Newton looked like a screaming value through the offseason (going around the QB10 range), but recently tweaked his foot in the third preseason matchup. Monitor and adjust accordingly. Brown looks like a perfect pairing for Bills passer Josh Allen. Green, another early value, is on the mend as previously noted.

     It is hard not to like Murray, coming off his ridiculous Heisman-winning season and landing in Arizona’s new offense — one which looks to pace the league in number of plays run. Similarly, Jackson offers an ultra-safe floor-ceiling combination given his ability as a runner. Jackson’s teammate and rookie runner Hill looks like a league-winner, and one that should see his workload steadily tick-up as the season progresses. Valdes-Scantling and Moncrief are my bets for WR2-type roles in their respective offenses (although Washington has looked sharp throughout the preseason).

     More quarterbacks are rising to the surface now in this tier. Choose your favorite, but I’d keep waiting myself if I wasn’t invested at this point. Drake was spotted in a walking boot earlier in camp, which he recently shed. Not sure if he left the door open long enough for some competition? Henderson’s ADP got very wonky very quickly but should’ve settled back down at this point. Clear league-winner material if things go off the rails with Gurley. Allison has locked down the slot role for Green Bay. McDonald “won’t see extra snaps,” but I’m comfortable betting on his familiarity with the offense at this point in the draft.

     Brady should be on the rise (so fitting) as he returns Gordon and gets Edelman and Thomas back off the NFI and PUP lists respectively. Boykin is a special athlete who looks to have seized an early role already. Thompson is all the rage, and the early preseason highlights provide insight as to why. He’s smaller, and not lead-back material, but he’s a satellite back-plus in Andy Reid’s system. Easy buy. Johnson is finally #free, and the landing spot looks pretty beautiful to me. Sanders, somehow, is defying the odds and looks to be ready to ball Week 1 despite tearing an Achilles what feels like three weeks ago.

     Andrews has been the favorite target of his rising (we hope) quarterback throughout the summer. Coutee adds an elite dimension to the Houston offense, assuming health and availability stay on his side. Samuels may offer some standalone value, but his ceiling is completely crippled and nonexistent with Conner in front of him. Pollard does a lot of the same things as the Pittsburgh backup, as far as his versatility and ability as a pass-catcher goes. He should get his touches weekly, but I have him lower down on the list in the grand scheme, given Elliott’s likely return.

     Samuel has put the pressure on his fellow wideouts, and could command a surprising share of work during his rookie season. Every year is Parker’s year. My body remains ready. Quinn looks to capitalize on the easy and voluminous slot work. Barber is the de facto RB1 in Tampa Bay until further notice. Herndon got slapped with an early-season suspension but when he’s on the field, he’s flashed some difference-making traits.

     Luck is hurt, again, to some extent, and I’m terrified. I do not trust the Colts to be honest with us, so proceed as you see fit. Freeman looks to still be fighting his way up the Broncos’ depth chart. Harris looked like he was ready to carve out a role early himself, but has since been quiet and almost faded away. Thompson is an elite receiving back, and plays well in space, but hasn’t been able to stay on the field. Jackson is the RB3, but could see RB2-type work if Gordon sits out. Hunt is back after the halfway point of the season. Peterson has to slow down at some point during his career, right?

     Allen’s a questionable real-life quarterback in a questionable offense but offers some serious fantasy benefits with his feet and bazooka arm. Carr should outplay this draft position, given the new faces that surround him. Brown’s been hurt for most, if not all, of camp. Harry drops down with Gordon’s return, Edelman’s finger trending up, and Thomas hanging around off the PUP. Campbell, always a favorite, was a WR3-at-best with Luck healthy. Now, if the Colts’  starting quarterback misses time, it could get ugly.

     Smith was a promising rookie who still clearly has talent, but the Saints’ offense remains loaded so the breakthrough stays on hold. Dalton was a favorite late-round target, and still is, having the arsenal to outplay his draft slot (Green’s injury and the offensive line concerns do cap things, unfortunately). Jones was given the chance to secure the backfield volume. Turns out he may just not be very good at all. Edmonds will get his weekly touches as he looks to sub in for Johnson given the Cardinals’ projected blistering pace. Hockenson is a rookie tight end, albeit with draft capital, but we know how that transition generally goes.

     Montgomery will spell Le’Veon Bell and factor in notably through the passing game. Though Williams was talented enough to be drafted, the testing ultimately sealed his fate, but he’s made good so far early this year when given chances and looks to make a push for a 53-man spot. Hurd’s versatility is enticing, especially given the scheme.

     Believe in Gesicki’s rare athletic ability. That is all.