Tales From the Underworld 1.5: Rookie/Devy Mock Draft

by | Apr 27, 2020

Welcome to the Breakout Finder debut of Tales from the Underworld. I’m Ray Ray Marz, your host/companion/narrator for what I hope to be a semi-regular series. This is where I will take you, the reader, inside my thought process. The plan is to tackle as many different forms of fantasy football as possible, using 15 years of playing experience in conjunction with PlayerProfiler‘s advanced stats and metrics, as well as the litany of tools offered by the Breakout Finder, to try and figure out how to become the very best (like no one ever has).

This series was started over at PlayerProfiler, which is the reason that this Breakout Finder debut piece is edition number 1.5 instead of number one. Being that the draft results I’m breaking down today come from a mock draft that included both incoming rookies and devy prospects, I figured it made more sense to talk about my findings here at BF. The devy landscape is new to me, I will be honest. Thankfully, we’ve taken on a number of new writers here who have probably forgotten more about devy than I can hope to even learn over the next few years.

As for this particular mock draft, I went in relatively blind, so I take no responsibility for any picks I made that may be classified as suboptimal. Although, even with my limited knowledge, I was happy with how I acquitted myself. Which may or may not be a good thing. I’ll let our faithful readers decide. For now, take a walk inside my mind as I try to rationalize my decision making and give a glimpse into what goes on upstairs when making decisions of this nature.

THE DRAFT

For those who want to know who was picked where, the results of this mock can be found in a two-part series over at Goingfor2.com. It was a six-round mock, Superflex and TE Premium, with the player pool consisting of incoming rookies and all eligible college players. From what I was told, the only points that would count in this hypothetical league are the points the players accrue once they hit the NFL. This wasn’t communicated clearly at the mock’s beginning, which is why Mississippi State RB Kylin Hill ended up being the No. 1 overall selection. While he should put up some good numbers under Mike Leach this season, it won’t count for his new owner’s hypothetical squad. For this reason, I strayed away from players who won’t be draft-eligible until 2022. A lot can happen between now and the 2022 season, so I dedicated my devy selections to those players who will more than likely become NFL draft picks in 2021. As for the rookie players I selected, we’ll revisit this mock some time after the 2020 NFL Draft to gauge how good or bad those picks ended up being on paper.

1.07) QB Justin Fields, Ohio State

After Hill went No. 1 overall, the next five selections were QB Trevor Lawrence, QB Joe Burrow, QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Jonathan Taylor and RB J.K. Dobbins. It’s been argued lately on the RotoUnderworld airwaves that the quarterback position is overvalued in Superflex formats. While RB D’Andre Swift enticed me at 1.07, it seemed silly to not select Ohio State QB Justin Fields at this spot. Aside from being picked at the 1.01 in a few devy Superflex mocks that I was able to find, he’s currently in the running to be the 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 2 selection behind Lawrence. With 750 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns over the last two seasons, he offers Konami Code appeal. Had Fields been off the board, Swift would’ve been the pick over any of the 2020 wide receivers. The rest of the Round 1 picks, for those interested and/or too lazy to click the previous links, were Swift, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Ja’Marr Chase (at No. 11!) and WR Rondale Moore.

2.06) WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota

Don’t worry, I won’t be listing off every pick from every round. I’m not a complete asshole. You can click the previous links if you want to know who was picked where badly enough, though the really interesting selections will warrant some further discussion in this article. I will say that the selection of Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson at 2.07, the fourth devy RB selected after Hill, Travis Ettienne and Chuba Hubbard, stands out as a potential shot-calling home-run swing.

With the highest-profile rookie and devy names now off the board, my second round pick came down to RB Cam Akers versus WR Rashod Bateman. Thankfully, the room made the decision for me when Akers was nabbed at 2.05. A lot has been made about how impressive WR Tyler Johnson‘s 2019 season was despite sharing the field with an emerging star. More should be made about how impressive it was to see Bateman break out as a true sophomore with 60 catches for 1,219 yards and 11 touchdowns in spite of Johnson’s 86-1,318-13 stat line. It’s safe to bet that he won’t run into the same roadblocks that are forcing Johnson into the Day 3 conversation. The 2021 wide receiver class projects to have a greater number of potential five-star prospects than this year’s group, Bateman being among them, which is why I was good with forgoing running back for another round.

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3.07) RB Najee Harris, Alabama

Eight of the 12 picks between my second and third round selections were dedicated to wide receivers. While I sat there hoping for Bryan Edwards to fall to me, I couldn’t help but notice that no one was bothering to step into the breach and stop the Najee Harris free fall. Barring anything unforseen, it’s hard to argue with a straight face that the starting running back for Alabama won’t be a first round rookie pick by this time next year. Especially if he comes close to last year’s 1,200-plus rushing yards, 25-plus catches and 20 total touchdowns (seven as a receiver). It’s easier to argue that one or more of the seven devy wide receivers selected to this point won’t be more valuable than Harris in next year’s rookie drafts. He was the last devy running back that I was comfortable considering, given this draft format. Though backs such as Max Borghi, Zach Charbonnet, Breece Hall and Kenneth Gainwell are enticing, they strike me as being better picks for more traditional devy leagues.

4.06) WR Bryan Edwards, South Carolina

Well hot damn, I ended up getting my guy at 4.06 anyway. Anyone who has been following the Breakout Finder for any length of time is likely familiar with the good name of Mr. Bryan Edwards. Heck, I’ve waxed poetic about him on this very site, as well as on PlayerProfiler, so I don’t have much to add here. Except that there’s something to be said for the fact that South Carolina wideout, a Day 3 pick in the worst-case-scenario, already has a class-best 47.0 Breakout Rating. This happens when you break out at age 17 in the SEC and go on to start 47 games. While I do hope that an NFL team realizes his potential enough to pick him on Day 2, I’ve kind of gotten used to being able to select him in any draft I take part in that doesn’t include Breakout Finder or RotoUnderworld types and I hope that continues post-draft.

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Round 4 also saw the first tight ends come off the board in Penn State’s Pat Freiermuth and Notre Dame’s Cole Kmet. Despite the TE premium scoring, I figured it would be better to load up on skill position players and figure out the tight end position on the theoretical waiver wire. Adam Trautman, PlayerProfiler’s No. 1 ranked rookie tight end, went undrafted in this mock, so problem solved. 

5.07) RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt

I’m dumb. This pick should have been QB Jalen Hurts. I somehow didn’t realize he was still on the board, even glossing through the picks from the earlier rounds and not looking for his name because I assumed he had already been picked. That’s why we practice, I guess, but I digress.

The No. 6-ranked running back on PlayerProfiler’s rookie rankings, Ke’Shawn Vaughn is an underrated player with a profile that suggests he can succeed right away as an NFL starter. The metrics that go into his 54.7 Rushing Efficiency Score show that he stood out among mediocre surrounding talent in college. Who he’s drafted by and how they deploy him will obviously play a factor in how smart or not smart this pick ends up looking in a few months. Though from his time at Vanderbilt, we already know that he can thrive in a suboptimal situation. Now we just have to hope he lands on a shallow depth chart in the NFL.

6.06) RB Antonio Gibson, Memphis

Full disclosure, I was entirely prepared to select the Breakout Finder poster boy himself, Lynn “Bend the Knee” Bowden, in this spot. After all, somebody had to take RB Antonio Gibson in the ten picks between my fifth and sixth round selections, right? Right? On second thought, I assumed the same about Bryan Edwards earlier. The fact is, this draft became very QB, TE and devy-focused over the course of the last two rounds. Though I would’ve been perfectly content with both Fields and Hurts had it broken that way, I was still happy to continue executing my plan of loading up on skill-position players. Specifically, those with high ceilings that can help my theoretical squad this season. I’m filibustering here, since I don’t have a lot to add. Unless you’re new here, you already know how high Gibson’s ceiling is and what he brings to the table at the next level, assuming he does the logical thing and stays at running back. I’m just looking for approval because I knocked it out of the park with this selection.

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That’s All I’ve Got

I hope you’ve enjoyed this little journey inside the mind of a content creator, dynasty gamer and newfound devy enthusiast of sorts. I acknowledge I still have a long way to go if I want to be as knowledgeable as half the guys we have on staff as writers here. The main focus of Tales From the Underworld is to provide the readers both here and over at PlayerProfiler with something completely different than they’re used to taking in. While trying to be as entertaining as possible, I am forcing you to listen to me talk about my fake fake football teams, after all.

Let me know who you would have picked if you were in my shoes. What did I do wrong? How I can improve in future drafts of this style? Engage me. My wife won’t mind, we’re already married.

Sorry, it’s 1:00 AM eastern time and I’m running on fumes, so I’m just going to end it here. Until next time.