Justin Watson finally gained some fantasy buzz in 2019 with injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin late in the season. Watson, the younger, more unknown player, was receiving fantasy hype while people wrote off the previously abysmal Breshad Perriman. Then Perriman turned around three straight 100-yard games and five touchdowns in his final four games. Perriman was helping win fantasy titles while Watson was held to just five catches and a touchdown (while only going over 50 yards once) in two games.
Now that Perriman has signed a free agent deal with the New York Jets, the third wide receiver position has opened up. The competition as of now is between Watson and Scott Miller. Miller is small, but proved to be a deep threat as a rookie last season. Watson possesses the profile to handle more snaps and targets, while Miller’s profile suggests a field-stretching role.
Tampa Bay WR Justin Watson (17) is primed to elevate his status in 2020. (Photo courtesy WINK News.)
Can the Kid From UPenn Play Ball?
Watson has the profile and checks the boxes to be a successful NFL wideout. It is unknown what school Watson would have attended had he not chosen a more academic path in University of Pennslyvania, a point that has caused some skepticism in his profile. However, all he did was smash in college, breaking out as a sophomore and flashing dynamism to enrich his resume.
Watson has the receptions, yards, touchdowns, and rushing stats in his college career that indicate success at the next level. These figures led to a 98th-percentile college dominator rating and an 80th-percentile breakout age. The major producer also has the requisite size-adjusted speed to be successful in the NFL. At 6’2″ and 215 pounds, Watson registered sub-4.5 second 40-yard-dash speed and jumped a spectacular 40 inches in the vertical leap. For his size, he registered upper-percentile speed and explosiveness. Combining his stats, athleticism, and size, Watson has the complete package.
Will Watson Benefit from Brady?
It is generally accepted in the fantasy community that on average, smaller school receivers take longer to breakout. Watson is headed into his third season and only had a handful of games as a starter last season. With a new quarterback, new role, and more targets and snap share, a Year 3 breakout is certainly in the range of outcomes for Watson.
Tom Brady is in and Jameis Winston is on the way out of Tampa Bay. There could be an offensive style shift coming. In 2019, the 42-year-old Brady’s average yards per target (6.6) dropped to one of the lowest amounts ever seen in his career. Only his first three seasons as an NFL starter were lower. Brady’s yards per completion (10.9) also dropped dramatically. Winston, in contrast, put up deeper air yards numers in 2019 (8.2 YPA and 13.4 YPC).
Suffice to say, the change at quarterback could means less deep targets to Mike Evans (over 17 YPR the past two seasons) and more targets to the short and intermediate areas of the field for Chris Godwin and Watson.
Watson and Brady Could be a Match
With Godwin and Evans commanding two-wide receiver sets, the slot is open for Watson to command significant targets. Watson played 38% of his snaps in the slot in 2019. Sure, things could change in a new system with a new coach, but it’s likely Brady consistently keeps the short passes going in his older age.
In his long NFL history, Brady has peppered slot receivers with targets. Whether it was Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Wes Welker, or others, slot receivers have clicked with Brady. Edelman has played over half his snaps in the slot and the Super Bowl MVP has has been one of the league’s most targeted players per game. If that trend continues in Tampa Bay, Watson could stand to benefit.
Watson has the profile and athleticism to succeed in the NFL. He is just waiting for his chance and needs targets to show what he can do. If he can command significant slot snaps with Brady at quarterback, his fantasy value should rise substantially.