The idea behind these “tiers” is to provide an outline and plan of attack, essentially. Knowing the tier drop-offs will help you either ride the wave of a certain positional run during your drafts, or get well out ahead of the wave. All rankings will be updated throughout the offseason on the home page under the “Rankings” tab. Cheers, my pals.
Tier 1:
Deshaun Watson, HOU: Completely healthy, improved offensive line (offseason investments, anyway), and returns Will Fuller. Arguably the NFL’s premiere dual-threat quarterback.
Patrick Mahomes, KC: Smashed during 2018’s prolific, breakout season. Regression should be expected, especially given Tyreek Hill‘s pending absence. Still, the natural talent, offensive scheme, and plus-personnel keep the bar very high.
Editor’s Note: Hill has been cleared of all allegations as of July 19th. Mahomes’ ranking remains unaffected.
Andrew Luck, IND: Similar to Watson in that he’s further removed from injury; playing behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, and adds Devin Funchess via free agency and dynamic athlete Parris Campbell via the draft.
Tier 2:
Aaron Rodgers, GB: Talent-wise, Rodgers still sits at the top. Anticipating a bounce-back campaign now that he’s finally freed of Mike McCarthy.
Baker Mayfield, CLE: Legitimate hype surrounds Cleveland on the heels of Mayfield’s flashy freshman season. Added Odell Beckham Jr., who is also flashy and good at football.
Carson Wentz, PHI: Big media’s favorite pick for this year’s league MVP, the once-injured Wentz returns all the usual suspects on offense while drafting an exciting RB1-candidate and bringing back DeSean Jackson.
Matt Ryan, ATL: Lots of big box scores to come in Atlanta, which should surprise nobody.
Russell Wilson, SEA: Seattle wants to run, which is disappointing, but nobody maximizes the talent around him more so than Wilson. Adds freaky, Martavis Bryant-like wide receiver D.K. Metcalf in the draft.
Kyler Murray, ARI: Very familiar with Coach Kingsbury’s offense, one that should attempt to pace the league in volume and plays run. Murray’s efficiency and output in Norman was special.
Tier 3:
Cam Newton, CAR: Best offensive personnel of his career, only question or concern surrounds his shoulder.
Drew Brees, NO: Hasn’t topped 4,800+ yards since 2016 but still, the offense remains elite with Brees at the controls and the TD upside is there as such.
Tier 4:
Jameis Winston, TB: Bruce Arians is in town. There will be interceptions, but the passes will never stop. Huge yards/TD-upside under the former Cardinals coach.
Jared Goff, LAR: Still tied to one of the best offensive minds in the league; gets Cooper Kupp back, but Todd Gurley‘s services may be up in the air.
Dak Prescott, DAL: First-time offensive coordinator Kellen Moore installing what we’re told is a new, exciting, “explosive” scheme.
Lamar Jackson, BAL: Aggressive ranking hinges on the idea that he takes a step forward as a passer; rushing abilities keep his floor and ceiling relatively high for fantasy purposes regardless.
Phillip Rivers, LAC: The father-of-the-year returns red zone threat Hunter Henry, but might be without his do-it-all RB1.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF: We’re pretty sure he’s good, and gets to pass to Top-3 tight end George Kittle or one of his dozen running backs, all under the watchful eye of Kyle Shanahan.
Kirk Cousins, MIN: “Quiet” 30 touchdown season in 2018, which was largely a disappointment. Offensive line should be improved, coupled with a new, Cousins-friendly scheme. Also returns RB1 Dalvin Cook.
Tier 5:
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: Drop-off after Antonio Brown‘s departure but the combination of JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner should keep things moving forward.
Sam Darnold, NYJ: Only 22-years old with his best football ahead of him. Adds elite, pass-catching RB1 in Le’Veon Bell, lid-lifter Robby Anderson, and developing go-to tight end Chris Herndon.
Derek Carr, OAK: Do-or-die time for the Oakland signal-caller who may miss the bus to Las Vegas if things fall apart in 2019. Best weapons of his career, also Year Two under Jon Gruden for the continuity narrative.
Josh Allen, BUF: Big arm and “sneaky athlete” with legitimate rushing upside.
Andy Dalton, CIN: Bengals offense as a whole is being overlooked. I imagine that has something to do with them losing a new starting offensive linemen every other day.
Tom Brady, NE: Might not necessarily “wow” for fantasy purposes in a retooled offense post-Rob Gronkowski where the ground game should remain priority, but he’ll continue to lead 12-win-plus campaigns until he’s 60-years old.
Tier 6:
Mitch Trubisky, CHI: Not an elevator of talent, but the offensive personnel is strong and head coach Matt Nagy will help cover up any blemishes as best as he can.
Marcus Mariota, TEN: I’m a Mariota fan, personally, so I’d like for this to be the year that he finally puts it all together. That said, the offense will run through Derrick Henry until further notice.
Matthew Stafford, DET: The forever-young Lions’ quarterback should continue to get plenty of pass attempts even though the offense looks to lean on the running game a bit more.
Nick Foles, JAX: Blake Bortles set the bar rather low.
Joe Flacco, DEN: Looking as handsome as ever but probably isn’t very good (still). Von Miller obviously likes him, for whatever that’s worth.
Dwayne Haskins, WAS: Limited college tape but had notable production. Cerebral passer that should take hold of the reigns sooner rather than later.
Daniel Jones, NYG: He’ll start this year. He was drafted early. That’s all I’ve got.
Josh Rosen, MIA: Dumped by Arizona, no idea if he’s the long-term answer in Miami, either.
Eli Manning, NYG: How? Why?
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA: He’ll mix in some fun performances as he always does then fart his way to the bench (and then probably get paid elsewhere next year and do it all over again).
Case Keenum, WAS: How long can he hold off the rookie?