Tyler Allgeier was a big-play runner at BYU who was slightly disappointing in this athletic testing cycle:
Other than an almost-average broad jump and a decent first step on his 40-yard dash, Allgeier did not prove to be an impressive mover. He does have workhorse size though. And none of his tests were so bad that we should now assume he just can’t play in the NFL.
Based on the above measurables, the following historical prospects are Allgeier’s most similar from an athletic and overall physical standpoint:
There aren’t really any sexy names on these lists. But those of guys like David Montgomery, Alexander Mattison, and Isaiah Crowell are lurking just below the top five. Allgeier is not impressive, but he probably has requisite athleticism for an NFL back.
Production Profile
After walking on, Tyler Allgeier played some linebacker at BYU before becoming the team’s starting running back as a junior:
He was solid in that 2020 season, but he really blew up as a senior in 2021. He ran for over 1,600 yards, added another 199 through the air, and scored 23 touchdowns on a Cougar team that was ranked No. 19 in the country at season’s end.
Given the Dominator Ratings he posted and the quality of teams he played for, the following historical prospects had the most similar seasonal numbers, as well as complete college production profiles:
Here we start to see some interesting names pop up. Matching the career arcs of successful NFL backs like Marion Barber and Miles Sanders is certainly a positive. So is posting a junior season that’s comparable to Marlon Mack, one of the best recent small school backs.
Rushing Efficiency
I wrote a full breakdown of Tyler Allgeier‘s rushing efficiency numbers that can be found here. The following is a quick breakdown:
A deeper dive into the data means that his numbers look better now than they did when I wrote that original piece. My estimation of him as a player has gone up accordingly.
While the backfield teammates he played with were not especially talented, Allgeier outdid them to a greater degree than any other 2022 back did theirs. His YPC+ mark is first in the class. His Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating is first in the class. And his Relative Success Rate is second in the class to only Dameon Pierce.
After taking over as the starter, Allgeier offered elite per-touch efficiency relative to the other backs at BYU:
His ancillary metrics are impressive as well. He was excellent both in the open field and as a tackle-breaker.
Given his physical profile in combination with all the above metrics, the most similar historical prospects to Allgeier from a “pure runner” perspective are:
Ryan Mathews ran a 4.37 40-yard dash. He was therefore a bit fast for an Allgeier comp to fully ring true. But the degrees to which they each outperformed similarly talented teammates are right there. Stylistically, Allgeier is more like the next three guys on this list.
Receiving Chops
Tyler Allgeier caught 28 balls in his last season at BYU. He gets a rap as a three-down back as a result, but I think he’s pretty limited in that area:
His Target Share is fine. But his Satellite Score indicates that he was really only involved as a receiver as a function of being a large part of the offense overall.
His efficiency numbers also look good at face value. Though they are largely fueled by his high marks in yards after the catch per reception. The numbers paint a pretty clear picture of a guy who is almost exclusively being thrown the ball out in the flat and then using a good head of steam to truck cornerbacks. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. I do think it would be misguided to look at the raw receptions totals and consider it a box-checked in the pass-catching acumen department.
Given the above metrics, here are the historical prospects whose receiving profiles most closely resemble Allgeier’s:
This list feels like a good representation of the kind of receiver he is at this point in his development. None of these guys are especially talented receivers. They also aren’t blatant liabilities. It’s very likely that whatever team he ends up on will have better options on third downs.
Overall Profile
Despite a bit of an unconventional start to his career, the Tyler Allgeier evaluation is pretty straightforward. He’s a big dude who was incredibly efficient on the ground while offering the bare minimum as a pass-catcher. He doesn’t have a no-doubt profile. But guys who were as dominant as runners as he was have to at least be interesting.
The following comps lists give a full-picture look in two areas. The “raw traits” comp takes production out of the equation and just looks at players who are most similar to Allgeier in a vacuum, based on physical attributes as well as on-field efficiency. The overall comp considers those same things while also taking production into account:
Allgeier is part of the Zack Moss–David Montgomery family tree as a big, efficient, tackle-breaking machine with some semblance of three-down ability. It would not shock me to see him never quite put it together in the same way that guys like Devine Ozigbo and Zach Zenner didn’t. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see him give us a year or two of quality production as a short-term lead back in the NFL.