Battling the Books: Week 4 Prop-Hunt

by | Oct 4, 2020

Every week, we sift through NFL props searching for ways to add some Benjamin’s to the wallet. Even if you don’t bet, or are in a state that doesn’t allow it, there is still value in learning what players and teams are set up to smash, and those to fade (please note, props are odds from DraftKings Sportsbook).


Ryan Fitzpatrick OVER 280.5 passing yards @ -118

The Miami Gunslinger, properly known as Fitzmagic, gets the Seattle secondary who is giving up 439.6 yards through the air per game this year. Jamal Adams is out, Quinton Dunbar is out, and the game total is set at 54, so expect a lot of points. Are the Dolphins doing that through Myles Gaskin, Matt Breida, and the shell of Jordan Howard? Dating back to 2019, Fitzpatrick has played in nine games that have gone over 50 points. In those 9 games, he went over 280.5 yards 67% of the time. Take the odds, especially in this smash spot.

Marquise Brown OVER 42.5 receiving yards @ -118

Coming off the 2 receptions for 13 yards dud on Monday Night versus Kansas City, Hollywood Brown’s yardage prop dropped all the way down to 42.5. There is too much value to pass this one up. Lamar Jackson missed a wide-open Brown deep TWICE last week. If those two shots had been completed, this prop would look a lot different. Soak up the value for a guy who could go over on one play.

Mike Davis UNDER 5.5 receptions @ -148

Paying a little juice here at -148 is a tad unattractive, but still great action. Yes, Christian McCaf– excuse me, Mike Davis, has 16 receptions the past two weeks. But it’s time for Davis to come back down to earth. This is set like McCaffrey is in the backfield for Carolina and I am willing to bet on the Davis’ reception-regression. If another 6+ reception game from the fill-in Carolina RB1 buries me, so be it.

Josh Jacobs over 91.5 total yards @ -112

There is still public perception of the Buffalo defense being incredible. Is No. 26 in run defense DVOA, and No. 24 in team defense DVOA incredible? Josh Jacobs has played in 16 career NFL games; he has gone over 91.5 total yards in 12 of the 16 games (75%), and is averaging 109 total yards per game so far in 2020. With Henry Ruggs doubtful and Bryan Edwards out, Josh Jacobs will have a busy, busy day.

BONUS Upside play – 3-leg parlay: Baltimore -14, Buffalo -3.5, Chicago Moneyline @ +714

After getting embarrassed by Kansas City last week, Baltimore is in the perfect bounce-back spot. Chase Young is out for Washington, and Terry McLaurin is questionable. It is difficult to see the “Football Team” keep this within two touchdowns.

In Las Vegas, Buffalo’s No. 6 ranked offense in DVOA gets the Raider’s No. 31 ranked defense, now with “top” corner Damon Arnette out. A field day is set up for Josh Allen and it’s hard to imagine a depleted Vegas team keeping up.

We toss my upset pick of the week, Chicago (3-point dogs), in here to add a little spice and upside. Nick Foles jumpstarts the Bear’s offense, and Indianapolis’ depleted, middle-of-the-road offense will struggle against Chicago’s underrated top-6 defense.

For more content follow me on Twitter @cdask_

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