Every week, we sift through NFL props searching for ways to add some Benjamin’s to the wallet. Even if you don’t bet, or are in a state that doesn’t allow it, there is still value in learning what players and teams are set up to smash, and those to fade (please note, props are odds from DraftKings Sportsbook).
Miles Sanders over 25.5 receiving yards @ -112
Betting against this Pittsburgh defense seems daunting. I get that. But this match-up is set up for a Miles Sanders’ smash through the air.
Through three active weeks, Sanders has logged 36, 12, and 30 receiving yards. The production hasn’t quite popped yet, which is attributed to his 47% catch rate. Carson Wentz has been that bad throwing the ball, but that wasn’t the case last year: In 2019, Miles Sanders posted a 79% catch rate. I project we start to see the catch rate trend back up towards normal numbers.
Even while the box score hasn’t been impressive, Sanders’ usage has. His 80.3% snap share (No. 4), 30.3 routes per game (No. 2) and 77% route participation reveal he is ready to pop. Pittsburgh boasts the No. 1 run defense DVOA in the league and in Week 1, Saquon Barkley learned this the hard way. After carrying the ball 15 times for 6 yards, how did the Giants get their best player involved? How about 9 targets, 6 receptions, and 60 yards. A similar game plan will be deployed by Philadelphia to get their best offensive player the rock in space.
DeAndre Hopkins over 6.5 receptions @ +106
DeAndre Hopkins has yet to go UNDER 6.5 receptions as a Cardinal, and we get the action at plus money? Too good to pass up.
In his four games with Arizona, Hopkins has tallied 14, 8, 10, and 7 receptions. The projected game script versus this terrible New York Jets team kept this prop at 6.5, but a “run play” in the Arizona horizontal attack has turned into a quick hitter to Hopkins.
Marquise Brown over 56.5 receiving yards @ -112
Hollywood came though for us last week with a nice little 4 for 86, so we are going back to the well in a juicy matchup versus Cincinnati.
The game total is set at 50.5, and I like even more points to be scored in what looks like a sneaky-shootout. While the game is popping off, look for Hollywood and his 26.5% target share (No. 8) to smash 56.5 yards.
Kyle Allen under 232.5 passing yards @ -112
Dak Prescott, who is averaging 422.5 yards per game, threw for 266 yards Week 1 against the Rams. Daniel Jones put up 190 yards last week, and Kyle Allen is going to toss for 233? Right. The Rams want to run the ball (No. 4 in run plays per game) and control the clock.
This is not the environment for Kyle Allen and his abysmal 2019 No. 33 true passer rating to have a game.
Robby Anderson over 73.5 receiving yards @ -112
What a time to be alive: Preferring to bet on Robby Anderson over D.J. Moore (67.5 receiving yards).
What Anderson has done through four weeks has been impressive: 8.8 targets per game, 7 receptions per game, and games of 115, 109, 55, and 99 yards. I almost forgot, who do the Panthers play? Just Atlanta, and their No. 31 pass defense in a game set at 54 points. Smash.
Bonus upside 3-leg parlay: Kansas City -11.5, Pittsburgh -7, Baltimore vs. Cincinati over 50.5 @ +582
The Las Vegas Raiders stand no chance against the Chiefs. Derek Carr has never won a single game at Arrowhead, and since his return to the Raiders, Jon Gruden’s two games in Kansas City resulted in 31- and 32-point losses. Las Vegas does get Henry Ruggs back, but that isn’t the issue. Patrick Mahomes has the Chiefs rolling with the league’s No. 1 pass attack in DVOA, while the Raider’s No. 30 pass defense is put through a shredder week in and week out. This one will be a blood bath.
All the attention in Pittsburgh on Sunday will be on the battle in the trenches, and it looks ugly for Philly. Through four weeks (and only playing three games), Pittsburgh is No. 2 in sacks and No. 1 in adjusted sack rate. Factor in Pittsburgh’s ability to apply pressure with the Eagle’s inability to protect their quarterback (14 sacks allowed, No. 30), and Carson Wentz is going to spend the majority of his time digging turf out of his facemask rather than covering a touchdown.
A divisional match-up that has all the makings of an under-the-radar shootout. Baltimore’s defense has continued to look vulnerable through the air (No. 3 run defense DVOA, No. 14 pass defense DVOA), while Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon and the Bengals look like they have found their stride offensively. We know Baltimore will be able to march all over the Cincinnati defense, and 35 points is likely. Will the Bengals be able to get to 16? The Washington Football Team put up 17 last week so the light looks green.