One Georgia player leaving brings opportunity for the rest. Unlike my usual botchy transitions, it made sense to introduce the Georgia wide receiver most likely to benefit from Jermaine Burton’s departure. This series won’t always be about wide receivers, however I am excited for this profile.
Adonai Mitchell – 2024 Wide Reciever
The Breakout allure
When a freshman breaks out as a wide receiver, the hype drum tends to have a steady beat throughout the off-season. Yet for Adonai Mitchell, he is all but a name whispered in the wind. As mentioned previously the leading wide receiver for Georgia, Jermaine Burton has transferred out into a new home. To fill the void left by Burton, Georgia has brought in three freshman wide receivers all of whom, rank below 35th best at the position according to 247sports. The roses are all not glowing red for Mitchell just yet, while he projects to be the ‘X’ this year he has serious receiving competition. Brock Bowers and Arik Gilbert is the current two-headed dragon Mitchell will be dueling for targets with this coming year. Bowers, leading the team in targets an receiving production and Gilbert oozing with upside makes these two a formidable challenge.
the production puzzle
Freshman production is something I covet, especially when it classifies as a breakout. Adonai Mitchell’s breakout lacked serious sex appeal though, coming in third on the receiving production pecking order. The kicker that I see, is that he earned that production playing aside two future high NFL draft picks; Brock Bowers and Jermaine Burton. Mitchell has tremendous size standing at 6-4 and 190 pounds. His freshman season production line for the 12 games he played was; 52 targets, 29 receptions, 428 yards and 4 touchdowns. His 52 targets led the Bulldog receivers by a healthy margin. Mitchell doing this in only 12 games gives more than enough reason for a deeper look into his profile.
The Analytic allure
For wide receivers, metrics are a useful tool for me to built their prospect profile foundation upon. In the case of Adonai Mitchell, his freshman year was alluring. Mitchell’s target share was 16.2-percent and his receiving yard share was 20.4-percent. While that target share is not spectacular what excites me is that his yardage share was higher than his target share. This shows me that Mitchell was able to capitalize on the opportunities earned by him. Mitchell’s Yards per Team Pass Attempt was 1.38 and his Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) was 1.66. From an efficiency standpoint, it is an average result. What gives me hope is his YPRR being over 1.5 and the fact he missed three games that season. These metrics are unadjusted for missed games, which leads me to believe that Mitchell is still meeting the alpha thresholds. Mitchell had a freshman dominator rating of 20.45, which is an official breakout albeit not an elite one (a rating of 30 or higher). He also had an average depth of target of 15 yards, which is in the ideal range for an alpha wide receiver to operate. The minor concern with Mitchell’s profile is his drop percentage, according to PFF 17.1-percent of his on target passes were dropped. This is far from a death knell but will most certainly deter him from his ceiling if that rate continues. While growth is expected for Mitchell going into his sophomore year, showing an improvement in catch percentage and yards after the catch would go a long way in improving his draft value.
To The film room
While analytics provide the what, film often give us the why. Here are some clips and breakdowns of Mitchell’s freshman season.
The 2024 wide receiver class is still rather open outside of Xavier Worthy and Marvin Harrison Jr. Sophomore year is often the time in which players set themselves apart from their counterparts. Given the opportunity afforded to Mitchell, and his performance as a true freshman he projects favorably. Mitchell also gets the added benefit of getting to dedicate this off-season on his craft, since the offensive structure will remain the same moving into 2022. Georgia seems to remain set winning through their defense and the run. According to Devy Watch, Mitchell’s ADP is pick 84. Simply put, having the upside Mitchell possesses at the value of acquisition he is currently at, make him a fantastic selection for any Devy roster.