A new season signals the start of a new year of Devy Diamonds. Last year I outlined Devin Neal, Jalen Berger, Parker Washington, Sean Tucker, E.J. Smith, Blake Corum, Cam’Ron Valdez, and Qua Davis. I would consider that a 50-percent hit rate, excusing the Jalen Berger piece since he was excused from the team for unknown reasons. This year I aim to deliver better, more impactful players that will be readily available in the mid to later rounds of your Devy draft. If you have any questions, fantasy on how to value a Devy player range, you can find out about the study I did by clicking here.
Jermaine burton – Wide receiver
Georgia and the portal
Jermaine Burton started off his collegiate career playing for the Georgia Bulldogs, standing at 6-0 and 190 pounds. After his sophomore season, he decided to enter the transfer portal. While the official reason remains to be seen, his motivation to transfer is very likely to be summed up as such. The last time Georgia had put a wide receiver in the 1st round draft was in 2011. Meanwhile, Alabama has had a 1st round wide receiver drafted four times in the last six years. During his career at Georgia, Burton amassed 901 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns, a catch-percentage rate of 66.8, and 1,209 career air yards. While those numbers may seem underwhelming, he was still the leading wide receiver despite missing two games last year.
The Metric Breakdown
Jermaine Burton’s raw production may feel that he was leaving ‘meat on the bone’, but his metrics are very promising. Burton had his breakout his second year removed from high school, registering a 24.7-percent Dominator Rating. While his career target share leaves me yearning for more with an average of 14.8-percent, his percentage of receiving yards is promising. Burton has a career average of 19.6-percent of the team receiving yards, which is in the 73rd percentile. From an efficiency spectrum, Burton has shown improvements in his yards per team pass attempt going from 1.32 his freshman season to 1.67 his sophomore season. He also has shown improvements with his yards per route run with a career average 1.94. The window shows Burton’s profile as promising, he has been the improvement each year while meeting the necessary thresholds to become a fantasy producer. I believe Burton missing two games ‘nerfed’ his metrics a little but some of the contextual numbers are also promising. His average depth of target is 14.7 yards while his yards per reception is a average of 17 yards. Burton’s biggest hurdle and the biggest reason why he transferred is the fact that he won’t see the volume necessary to show top-tier numbers staying at Georgia.
Fits like a glove
Alabama has lost 338 targets to the NFL draft and an additional 56 targets due to transfers. The current depth chart for Alabama shows two sophomore wide receivers in Ja’Corey Brooks and Jojo Earle as the starting counterparts to Jermaine Burton. Alabama also has another transfer in Tyler Harrel out of Louisville. Similar to this last year’s Jameson Williams situation, Burton finds himself in an almost even better one. Burton figures to man the Z position in the formation for the Tide, a role he was familiar with playing an average of 80 percent of his snaps out wide of the formation.
a elevator pitch
Jermaine Burton’s hype has cooled off significantly since his transfer to Alabama. Burton has displayed the prowess to be a receiving weapon but has yet to show his ceiling. The metric thresholds Burton has met project that he is on a path to fantasy success. A significant reason I am interested in Burton is that he does not ‘need’ a season resembling Jameson William’s to get good NFL draft capital. Yet, Burton transferred to Alabama to put together a career year which will boost his value moving into the 2023 rookie draft. Burton is not a front runner but he is on track to be positioned in the second tier of the upcoming wide receiver class. Burton’s current ADP is hovering around pick 20 in Devy drafts.