Welcome to my new series, where I take a deep dive into each NFL division, looking at what mattered in 2019, which of course shapes what matters in 2020. This series provides an in-depth, team-by-team analysis on coaching, offensive lines, running games, and passing attacks. I grabbed my advanced stats and metrics from Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, and Sports Reference.
Watch for updates during Training Camp/Preseason.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Coaching
Bill O’Brien’s offenses have consistently ranked in the top half of the league in terms of pace and average-to-slightly-above average in terms of plays per game. While the Texans have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Deshaun Watson, they continue to run below-league average pass-to-run ratios. O’Brien’s offenses have never ranked below 17th in rushing attempts and have not ranked higher than 20th in passing attempts since drafting Watson, despite him being one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Offensive Line
While Houston overpaid for Laremy Tunsil, he did dramatically improve their play at left tackle. The Texans had the highest number of pressures allowed per pass block in 2017 and 2018 from their left tackle allowing one every ten snaps. Despite Tunsil improving into just one allowed every 28 snaps, they still ranked 27th in adjusted sack rate. Still, they are underrated as a run-blocking unit, putting up the fifth-most rushing yards before contact or attempt. The Texans would be smart to address the line in this year’s draft with whatever remaining draft picks they have.
Running Game
Since O’Brien has taken over, the Texans have averaged over 450 carries a season, so there will be plenty of volume to go around in this offense. Carlos Hyde was serviceable last year, and with the volume, he was able to finish 13th in the NFL in rushing yards. Hyde was allowed to leave and Houston has now replaced him with David Johnson as part of the De’Andre Hopkins trade. While Johnson broke out in his second year, injuries have mounted, and his efficiency has declined. His juke rate and yards created per carry are well below average over the past two seasons, making me very curious about what O’Brien sees in what’s left in the tank for Johnson. While he was still productive as a receiver last year, Johnson ranked just 33rd among running backs in YAC. Despite being a more efficient and explosive player the last two seasons, Duke Johnson keeps playing as a scat back in a reserve role. At a position where volume is king, Johnson will probably get a chance to eat up 60-70% of that volume.
Passing Game
The Texans traded Hopkins, one of the best wide receivers in the game and someone who has accounted for 28%+ of Watson’s targets. While Hopkins has had some sharp splits without Will Fuller on the field, and his ADOT has dropped the last two seasons, we don’t know whether that is on Hopkins or the Texans as a team. It looks like O’Brien is banking on Watson elevating that receiving corps. In another perplexing team-building move, Houston traded a second and fourth-round pick for Brandin Cooks, giving Watson another weapon in the passing game, despite Cook’s history of concussions. Still, Watson projects as a top ten quarterback and these moves may lead to an increase in rushing attempts.
After four years of injuries and in a contract year, Fuller walks into the #1 WR role and still has tantalizing skills and upside. If there is a season to stay healthy and get paid, this is it for Fuller. He has ranked in the top 20 for yards per pass route in the few games he has played and has blazing 4.3 speed. If Fuller can stay healthy, a top ten wide receiver season is certainly in the range of possibilities. If you can grab Fuller as a WR3 (he’ll most likely be drafted as a WR2), you could have a league winner situation on your hands.
There will be a rotation after Fuller, comprised of Cooks, Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, and Keke Coutee. My best bet is that Cooks, Cobb, Stills, DJ and Duke, and the two tight ends will carry a pretty similar target share making Fuller (barring injury) the only real passing weapon you want in this offense.
While Cooks had a promising start to his career, averaging 77-1,149-7 from 2014-2018, injuries have curtailed his production sharply over his last 16 games, where he has never surpassed 75 yards and he has totaled just 680 yards. Now with five documented concussions on his resume, Cooks is a huge fantasy risk. That being said, if healthy, he has WR2 upside. Until he proves that, though, he makes for a better bench stash.
Possible Downsides
Fuller and Cooks get hurt again making Cobb and Stills the top two targets on the team.
Unable to improve their offensive line leads to more injury risk for Watson, who already has a torn ACL, back injury, and sprained ankle in his medical history.
David Johnson looks like he is running with a piano on his back, but the coaching staff refuses to hand over the reins to Duke Johnson.
Draft Analysis
The Texans essentially traded away their draft as part of the Tunsil, Hopkins, and Cooks trades. With their second round pick, they did snag interior pass rusher Ross Blacklock who many had going at the end of the first round. He should help fill a need after allowing D.J. Reader to leave as a free agent. With their next picks, the Texans selected nonathletic linebacker Jonathan Greenard, RT Charlie Heck, a small CB John Reid (who projects to play only in the slot), and a good Hail Mary pick in WR Isiah Coulter. Nothing in this draft really mattered for fantasy in 2020 or beyond.
Indianapolis Colts
Coaching
Frank Reich is one of best coaches in the NFL. His offenses have consistently ranked in the top 15 in pass attempts (except for 2019, due to Andrew Luck’s retirement). Outside of last season, Reich’s offenses have ranked in the top five in plays run per game.
Offensive Line
The Colts return all five starters for a third consecutive season, making them arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. All five linemen played over 1,000 snaps last season. This will most likely regress in 2020, but with continuity like that you can bank on a top five unit. The Colts ranked 12th in adjusted line yards and seventh in adjusted sack rate. This line should certainly help Philip Rivers in 2020.
Running Game
Marlon Mack finished 2019 11th in the NFL in rushing yards despite missing two games. Mack has suffered a variety of injuries to date and has yet to play a full 16-game season. While an elite offensive line certainly helped, Mack ranked sixth in the NFL in yards created per carry, 12th in breakaway run rate, 15th in evaded tackles, and 11th in juke rate, showing he is not just a product of a superb offensive line. Mack had two seasons in the NCAA with over 20 receptions but that part of his game has yet to be unlocked in the NFL.
With all of Mack’s accolades from last season, it looks like he is about to lose his job. The Colts traded up to select rookie sensation Jonathan Taylor at number 41 in this year’s draft. Taylor ran a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at the combine at 226 pounds, making him one of the best speed score prospects of all time. He is enters the league compared to Ezekiel Elliott, a top five RB in fantasy since he entered the league. Taylor improved his receiving usage in his final season at Wisconsin, but did have eight drops.
Rivers has notoriously loved throwing to his running backs which has led many to believe Nyheim Hines will be a big beneficiary from the signing of Rivers. With both Mack and Taylor on the roster, however, perhaps Reich rolls out with just two of them in a timeshare. Still, I would suspect Taylor surpasses Mack sooner rather than later.
Passing Game
Rivers is tough to evaluate for this coming season; he is certainly better than Jacoby Brissett. With the Chargers, he undoubtedly had better weapons, but in Indianapolis Rivers will have a better O-line and a better coach. While Rivers is known for operating more in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, he did rank eighth in deep targets per game last season. The problem is, he ranked 27th in deep ball completion percentage (where he ranked sixth the season prior). While it’s easy to find metrics over the last three years contradicting that Rivers has lost something, the most glaring metric is obvious: Rivers has now ranked fifth, tenth, and third in interceptable passes the last three seasons.
T.Y. Hilton averaged under 15.5 yards per reception for the first time in five seasons in 2019. Brissett and Brian Hoyer combined to throw 54 deep balls last season (while Rivers threw 75 on his own). Hilton’s yards per target dropped from seventh to 74th in the NFL last year, but Rivers will undoubtedly help in this department. Hilton has a long history of nagging injuries and playing through them, and it is fair to wonder, as a 5’10″, 180-pound speedster, if the injuries have caught up to him. He projects as a WR3 with both red flags and big upside.
The Colts decided not to trade back and selected instead WR Michael Pittman with the first of their two second-round picks. Pittman is a monster at 6’4” and 224 pounds, fitting the Vincent Jackson/Michael Floyd/Tyrell Williams/Mike Williams role that Rivers has become accustomed to over the years. With Parris Campbell missing most of his rookie season and Zach Pascal (who put together a respectable season) being an undrafted free agent, Pittman gets a legitimate shot at finishing second on this team in targets. Pittman makes for a great upside bench stash and best ball league pick this season as he has a chance to be the most productive rookie wide receiver in 2020.
Campbell will round out the Colts’ WR trio. He is by far the more intriguing player measuring in at 6’0″ and 205 pounds with the same 4.3 wheels Hilton has. While Campbell only played in seven games last season, if Hilton were to miss more time, he would benefit the most. Campbell currently projects to play in the slot with Pittman and Hilton outside.
Rivers has obviously had a historical connection with tight ends over his career. Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry have fared extremely well in the games they have played with Rivers. Eric Ebron left this offseason, leaving Jack Doyle as the unquestioned #1 TE for Indianapolis. Doyle was already 13th in targets last season even with Ebron there, receiving 52 targets of his own. Doyle has a real shot at a 96-plus target season in 2020. The only time he received that sort of volume was in 2017, when he finished with a 80-690-4 line resulting as the #6 TE for the season. If healthy, Doyle seems to have a pretty safe floor as a Top 12 TE this season, making him a decent target later in drafts.
Possible Downsides
Rivers will be 39 this season and last season’s combination of poor deep ball completion percentage, plus the high number of interceptable passes are here to stay, proving that the decline was more on Rivers than the Chargers’ offensive line.
Mack’s receiving usage is not boosted despite the fact that Rivers has a history of targeting running backs, and is just a first- and second-down grinder who continues to experience soft tissue injuries.
Hilton has hit the age plateau for smaller speedy receivers and his decline is for real.
DRAFT ANALYSIS
The Colts traded the 13th overall pick for stud interior defender DeForest Bucker, finally giving them a true star on a solid defense. After focusing on the defensive side of the ball with the trade for Buckner, and re-working their secondary, Indianapolis went ahead and addressed some key skill position needs, especially since they just signed Rivers for his age 39 season.
With their next two picks they selected Pittman and Taylor, as they needed additional talent to their WR corps with the aging Hilton, still unknown Campbell, and UDFA Pascal. Colts GM Chris Ballard was aggressive in his trading up for Taylor despite having Mack on the rosyter. While Mack has been good, it will be hard for him to hold off the uber prospect for the entire season. Third-round pick CB Julian Blackmon tore his ACL in the PAC 12 Championship Game, so look for him to compete for a job in 2021 when Xavier Rhodes‘ one-year deal expires. In the fourth round, Ballard grabbed QB Jacob Eason who will now have a chance to watch and learn behind Rivers for one or two seasons.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Coaching
Somehow head coach Doug Marrone still has his job and instead the Jaguars fired OC John DeFillipo and hired Jay Gruden. Gruden’s offenses have not typically resulted in large volumes which seems to align closer to what Marrone wants to do as a defensive HC.
Offensive Line
The Jaguars’ offensive line is one of the worst in the league despite being invested into. Second-round pick LT Cam Robinson has been a major bust and one of the worst left tackles in the league the past few seasons. After a solid start to his career, A.J. Caan has steadily declined. Free agent Andrew Norwell, while solid, under performed for what the jags paid for. Brandon Linder has been the brightest spot at center and Jawaan Taylor had a solid rookie season. Jacksonville’s defense is in shambles so it will be interesting to see if they elect to try and improve there, or address the dire need for a new left tackle. The Jaguars ranked 27th in adjusted line yards and have allowed 95 sacks over the past two seasons.
Running Game
With DeFelippo gone, some of Leonard Fournette’s passing down work is in jeopardy; he will be hard pressed to reach 100 targets again. Gruden has long used multiple backs and brought in free agent Chris Thompson who he drafted while with the Washington Redskins. Fournette could be looking at losing almost half of last year’s reception total.
Fournette, however, seems to be in line for positive touchdown regression after scoring just 3 touchdowns on over 1,600 total yards in 2019. Despite the poor blocking, there are some underlying issues with Fournette’s efficiency. He ranled 23rd in breakaway run rate, 19th in evaded tackles, 46th in juke rate, and 24th yards created per carry. Fournette is a back-end RB1 that is volume driven.
Passing Game
Gardner Minshew enters 2020 as the unquestioned starter after having an impressive rookie season. Minshew was a consistent fantasy producer until he was pulled for Nick Foles durign the last few weeks of the season. While Minshew had an underwhelming overall completion percentage, there are some promising numbers for his future. His receivers dropped 34 passes in 2019, the third-most in the NFL. Minshew ranked fifth in deep ball completion percentage, and sixth off of play action. He was a top five runner at the quarterback position, ranking fifth in carries per game and total rushing yards. Rushing totals should provide Minshew with a solid floor and a high ceiling if he continues to develop in his second season, typically the largest leap year for quarterbacks.
D.J. Chark, a second-round pick with sub-4.4 speed at 6’3”, broke out last season with a 73-1,008-8 line. There are questions whether this is sustainable for Chark as he took the league by storm the first half of the year totaling 39-660-6 and just a 34-348-2 line in the second half of the season. Chark currently ranks as a WR2 but may lack consistency as he only cleared 60 yards in six of 10 games last season.
With their second round pick, the Jaguars selected YAC monster Lavishka Shenault. At 6’1” and 227 pounds, Shenault is built like a running back playing wide receiver. While Shenault’s upside is huge, it will be hard to see him making a major impact in year one with Chark commanding options and Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley fighting for snaps. Shenault’s best path would be supplanting Westbrook, playing a big slot role and allowing him to make plays after the catch with both Chark and Conley on the outside.
Tyler Eifert signed with Jaguars as a free agent. He was able to stay healthy last season with limited snaps, which obviously caps his upside. If you’re ever starting him, you’re praying for a touchdown.
Possible Downsides
Minshew Mania was fun, but he is the sixth-round pick.
The O-line doesn’t improve.
Fournette becomes just a two-down grinder.
Chark is more of the second half wide receiver than the first half.
DRAFT ANALYSIS
The Jaguars had twelve total picks in the 2020 draft. In the first round, they essentially addressed what they either traded away or allowed to leave over the last two seasons (after believing Blake Bortles was their franchise quarterback). After trading Jalen Ramsey midseason, the Jags selected CB C.J. Henderson with the ninth overall pick. Jacksonville is looking to trade DE Yannick Ngakoue or they will lose him to free agency after the season. Perhaps that’s why they drafted his potential replacement in K’Lavon Chaisson. With Westbrook and Conley entering the final years of their contracts, the Jaguars selected Shenault with their second-round pick. DaVon Hamilton (73) and Ben Bartch (116) will look to help solidify both the defensive and offensive lines, respectively.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Coaching
In his first two seasons as head coach, Mike Vrabel’s teams have ran more than they have passed and they have been a bottom 5 team in terms of pace and plays per game. Volume is low in the Titans’ offense but there are concentrated opportunities providing a couple of high-end fantasy players.
Offensive Line
The Titans’ offensive line is much better at run blocking than they are at pass blocking. They had the highest adjusted sack percentage in the NFL and, although that percentage dropped when changing quarterbacks from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill, it was still a top five rate. As far as run blocking goes, the Titans were elite, ranking fourth in adjusted line yards. There are some potential issues heading into 2020. The Titans had a hole at right guard last season and had to let Jack Conklin leave in free agency this offseason. Conklin was rated as a top ten OT in the NFL in 2019. Titans GM Jon Robinson is doing its best to fill that void, selecting a monster in Isiah Wilson (6’7”, 350 pounds) with his first-round pick while retaining long-time swing tackle Dennis Kelly (who has graded out well the last two seasons, per PFF). If Kelly can maintain a high level of play, and Wilson lives up to the first-round pedigree, the Titans may end up with an overall better right-hand side of the offensive line than they did last season with Conklin.
Running Game
While former Titans HC Matt LaFleur was hesitant to embrace Derrick Henry as the workhorse, that switch was flipped in week 13 of the 2018 season. Over his last 19 regular season games, Henry has run 390 times (20.5/game) for 2,125 yards (112/game) and 23 TDs. A freak athlete at 6’3″ and 250 pounds, Henry ranked 15th in breakaway run rate, 19th in juke rate, seventh in evaded tackles, fifth in yards created per carry, and first in yards created after contact last season. The Titans released Dion Lewis durign the offseason and if they plan to use Henry more in the passing game, that will just raise his weekly floor (although they did draft Darrynton Evans in the third round). Henry is a Top 7 RB, but keep in mind he probably has the lowest floor week-to-week out of the top 7 unless the receiving usage increases.
Passing Game
Tannehill was a revelation last season, as buoyed by his extreme efficiency. He completed 70% of his passes and had a 7.7% TD rate in 2019. While we should expect some regression from him, he did complete 67% of his passes while putting up a 4.9% TD rate in 2016 and completed 64% of his passes with a 6.2% TD rate in 2018. It is worth noting that he tore his ACL at the end of 2016 and then missed all of 2017, and then missed five games with a shoulder injury in 2018. When Tannehill became the starter for the final 10 games of the season, the Titans’ red zone TD rate was over 20% higher than the league average; that is due for regression. Even with the amazing run Tannehill put together, the Titans threw the ball at the lowest rate in the NFL during that 10-game stretch. Tannehill’s stats were boosted by huge YAC/reception numbers, where they ranked second in the NFL. During the aforementioned 10-game stretch, he attempted just 3.3 deep balls per game and ranked just 25th in completing them. Tannehill should be drafted as a high-end QB2 with upside.
A.J. Brown became the first wide receiver in the NFL to record 1,000 yards on under 90 targets, an amazing but unsustainable feat. In his first eight games, Brown played on just 53% of snaps. In his final eight games, he played on 84% of snaps, posting a 30-703-5 line that amounts to almost 24 yards per reception! To put that into context, Randy Moss never averaged over 20 YPR in any season of his career and DeSean Jackson (arguably one of the best deep threats ever) has only done it twice. A crazy-high 8.9 YAC/R enabled this amazing production for Brown. His YAC/R ranked Top 5 in the league and he was the only wide receiver in the top 13. Heading into 2020, Brown is now the clear cut #1 option in the Titans’ receiving game. He should have no problem clearing 100+ targets, so while his efficiency may regress, his volume will likely increase, making him a mid-WR1/high-end WR2, with top 10 upside.
Adam Humphries and Corey Davis round out the wide receiver corps, but there will not be enough left on the bone for them to eat.
With Delanie Walker gone, Jonnu Smith makes for an intriguing tight end dart throw. Smith is an extremely good athlete who ranked second in target separation last season, top 10 in yards per route run, and 10th in fantasy points per route. Again, the biggest issue here is volume.
Possible Downsides
Losing Conklin destroys the right-hand side of the line, putting Tannehill under constant pressure while leading to a less-efficient running game.
Week-by-week game volumes will be inconsistent due to game scripts providing roller coaster seasons for Tannehill, Henry, and Brown.
Draft Analysis
The Titans went right after their losses from the offseason, drafting needs while getting back good value. Wilson is a massive human being and should fit right into Tennessee’s beat-’em-up running game philosophy. In the second round, the Titans snagged CB Kristian Fulton to replace Logan Ryan. With their third pick, Tennessee may have found a better version of Lewis to back up Henry in Darrynton Evans. Evans is larger and a more explosive athlete than Lewis. With their fifth-round pick, the Titans took Larrell Murchison to help with interior pressure, after trading away fan favorite Jurrell Casey.
Things to note for the upcoming 2020 season
- Due to COVID-19, this much-anticipated rookie class could come out of the gates slowly.
- With the possibility of no training camp and fewer practices, veterans will have an edge, especially at wide receiver where typically you see rookie breakouts over the second half of the season (think Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown in 2019).
- Teams installing new coaching staffs/schemes will be at a disadvantage with less preparation.
- Historical data shows that the average player who misses training camp will miss more regular season games than players who attend camp due to strength and conditioning programs.
Some notes on coaching
- Historically, head coaches have more of an effect on the offensive coordinator than the OC does on the actual offense.
- The amount of plays per game correlates more to the head coach’s history than an offensive coordinator. Historically, these trends tend to be very consistent from season to season.
- In their first seasons, head coaches and offensive coordinators tend to be a little more conservative than in their later years.
- Coaches with rookie quarterbacks tend to pass less than their historical data shows.
Follow Ikey Azar on Twitter @IkeyAzar.