The media has made it seem as though D.J Moore has fallen off. There’s been plenty of chatter about how he’s now no longer the best receiver on his team, and in large part this season, was a fantasty “bust” for their purposes.
But that’s the media, and various analysts that are probably looking at the wrong things, it would appear.
The advanced metrics tell a different story; a story of a player who is getting low amounts of targets, inaccurate targets, and not being used as a proper alpha. Moore has been as efficient as any receiver can be this season.
Let’s take a closer look.
D.J. Moore Compared to the Field
We can start with some eye-popping stats:
The Maryland product through thirteen weeks this season (excluding Week 14, as Moore didn’t play, instead being placed on COVID-19/IR) was among the league leaders in yards despite many fewer targets and receptions than his peers. He was 9th in the league in receiving yards with 924 to be exact.
924 yards were less than D.K Metcalf’s league-leading 1,079. Metcalf had 98 targets at the time. Moore had 89 and everyone else in the top-9 besides Justin Jefferson had well into the 100-120 range. Moore came in with 50 receptions while the next lowest was 61, and most of the other top-9 were in the 80-90 range. Add 11 receptions to reach the next lowest reception player in the top-9 with his 18.5 yards per reception and you get 1127.5, which would be first in the NFL in yards. 50 receptions and 89 targets for Moore are numbers far too low where even a slight, appropriate uptick would result in Moore being the league leader in yards.
The Panthers’ former first-round pick had more yards than Keenan Allen, who was the league leader in receptions at the time. That number leading the league sat at 90 which was also tied with Stefon Diggs. Don’t forget that Moore was resting with 50 receptions. That’s 40 fewer receptions than Allen and still, Moore was ahead of him in receiving yards.
If he could have just received more targets from Teddy Bridgewater, his season could have been nuclear…
Other Pro-D.J. Moore Stats
Moore is a league-leader in several predictive metrics:
#8 in air yards, #3 in air yards share, #3 in yards per reception, and #14 in deep targets are all metrics that support Moore being a quality asset.
For any player that runs a 4.42, deep ball stats will usually be their strong suit. But Moore is 210-pounds and so much more than just a deep ball artist. He was 8th in the NFL in yards after catch last season while being 18th this year still. The quarterback-play in Carolina has also let him down tremendously this season, as we alluded to above.
Known for his superior short-mid range accuracy and Joe Brady using Moore as a deep threat instead of a proper alpha, the Bridgewater-Moore connection hasn’t hooked up nearly as much as it should. As of Week 13, Moore ranks 75th in target rate, 53rd in red zone targets (only 4 touchdowns), and is 17th in unrealized air yards. Bridgewater is not feeding the ball to Moore and when he does, it’s been ugly. The Bridgewater-to-Moore targets have so far yielded a 52nd ranked catchable target rate with a 72 ranked target accuracy.
But the script for Bridgewater flips whenever he decides to target Robby Anderson.
Comparing D.J. Moore to Teammate Robby Anderson This Season
There is one major stat that tells the tale:
Moore’s 72nd ranked target accuracy is laughable compared to his teammate Robby Anderson. Anderson is ranked no. 1 in the NFL as of Week 13. What a difference.
Anderson was top-10 in the league in targets while Moore was outside the top-20 though Week 13. Anderson had 25 more catches than Moore before Week 14 and Moore still had more yards and still had a higher Dominator Rating as well. Anderson is being used as an alpha in this offense, but isn’t performing like one, and is feeding off of his volume and YAC ability. Moore, if he got this target volume or even just got more accurate targets, would be lighting up the NFL this season.
Conclusion
Moore is going underrated this season.
His value is being severely depressed due to poor target accuracy and not enough target volume. The media has done an admirable job talking-up Anderson as the new “alpha” in town, but the metrics say Moore is still one of the most talented players in the league.
Hopefully, the narrative flips again, the offense and quarterback-play elevates, and Moore can once again be realized as the true alpha threat that he is at only 23.7 years old.
If anyone is selling this offseason, I’m buying.
