TEDDY BRIDGEWATER SIGNS WITH THE CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Carolina Panthers made waves throughout the NFL when they signed former Saints and Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater to replace the oft-injured Cam Newton.
Bridgewater is an accurate, safe, and efficient quarterback. His 65.2% career completion rate will be a welcome change from Newtons’ career mark of 59.6%. Bridgewater’s career average depth of target (or aDOT) of 7.5 yards ranks 95th since 2014, but that isn’t necessarily troublesome for the offensive weapons in Carolina. Keep in mind that Saints QB Drew Brees ranked only one spot ahead of Bridgewater in aDOT last year, while both QBs helped Saints WR Michael Thomas finish as the #1 WR in fantasy. Bridgewater also reconnects with offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who was with the Saints in 2018 and was the mastermind behind LSU’s 2019 national championship offense. His system brought QB Joe Burrow a Heisman and saw WRs Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase finish as one of the best duos in the nation.
Although he saw an aDOT of 10 yards last year, WR D.J. Moore proved to be an explosive player that can turn a five-yard catch into a 15-yard gain. Moore has finished in the top 12 in yards after the catch and after contact in his first two NFL seasons. He could be a high-volume target as Bridgewater’s #1 weapon. Curtis Samuel and newest free agent addition Robby Anderson have been speedy vertical threats in their careers, as both finished with aDOTs higher than 14 yards in 2019. They are probably hurt the most from the change at quarterback, as Bridgewater failed to have his second-leading wide receiver have a weekly finish better than WR28 in 2019. Let’s not forget that Samuel was more of a RB/WR in college, where he excelled on manufactured touches and shorter routes. It remains to be seen if there will be enough volume to support him or Anderson.
While Anderson and Samuel remain slightly more volatile options as WR4s with upside, I’m more confident in Moore’s ability to return value as a high-end WR2 in 2020.
In Bridgewater’s only full season as a starter, the tight end position accounted for a 20% target share as Vikings’ TE Kyle Rudolph finished as the second-leading receiver in targets and yards. During Bridgewater’s five-game stretch as the starter in 2019, the TE position accounted for a 24% target share, adding fuel to the fire for a potential Ian Thomas breakout in 2019. The TE position as a whole only accounted for 45 yards per game during that stretch, though, so I wouldn’t bank on Thomas breaking into TE1 territory just yet.
Bridgewater is no stranger to dumping the ball off to his running back. In his first year with the Vikings in 2014 (12 games started), RB Matt Asiata finished as the Vikings’ second-leading receptions leader with 44 catches. In his first full season as starting quarterback in 2015, Bridgewater targeted the RB position 87 times, good enough for a 19% target share. During his five-game stint as a starter in 2019, he targeted Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray 40 times — a whopping 24.2% of his targets during that stretch. Don’t be afraid to draft Christian McCaffrey like you would any other year.
Bridgewater may not push the ball down the field as one might hope, and he may not have the biggest arm, but it isn’t a matter of incapability. In 2019, he finished with a 46.7% deep ball completion rate, which ranked as fourth-best on passes of 20 or more yards down the field. During his game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2019, he completed 13 passes of 10 or more yards, displaying touch and accuracy down the field. Bridgewater’s style of play definitely limits his upside, but I expect him to be a reliable QB2 in 2020.
TOM BRADY SIGNS WITH THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Tom Brady shocked the world when he decided to take his talents to Florida and try to bring the Lombardi Trophy back to Tampa Bay.
The 6x Super Bowl champion will arguably have the best weapons he’s ever had during his career, in an offense that likes to push the ball downfield. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both finished as top 12 wide receivers in yards and touchdowns in 2019. Former first-round tight end O.J. Howard is an athletic freak and a post-hype sleeper. Head Coach Bruce Arians’ offense threw the ball 62% of the time in 2019, while averaging the third-most yards per game at 397.9. His notorious vertical passing attack helped former Bucs QB Jameis Winston lead the league in passing yards and attempts, while finishing second in touchdowns. Winston’s 10.4 aDOT was right on par with Arians’ offenses, which have averaged an aDOT of 10 yards since 2012.
The question is whether Brady fits in this offense after having one of the worst years of his career. His touchdowns, completion percentage, and yards per attempt were all season lows in the past six years, with the 43-year old finishing with an aDOT of 7.6 yards. This figures to hurt Evans, whose career aDOT of 14.8 yards has helped lead him to six straight 1,000-yard seasons. It’s hard to envision him seeing similar volume down the field, but he still remains a major red-zone threat and could be a Rob Gronkoswki-like weapon for Brady in 2020. Even though he could see a dip in production, treat Evans like a high-end WR2 with upside.
Brady has shown the ability to adjust to his weapons in the past, including players like Randy Moss, Josh Gordon, and Brandin Cooks, who helped increase Brady’s aDOT to 10.2 in 2017. I’m optimistic about Brady’s chances to excel in Arians’ offense and finish the year as a low-end QB1.
Godwin figures to be the big winner with Brady in town. Godwin received 2nd team All-Pro honors in a breakout season as Arians’ primary slot receiver, which just so happens to be one of Brady’s most targeted positions during his career. He helped make other slot wide receivers like Wes Welker and Julian Edelman become staples in the fantasy world over their careers, and Godwin might be the best talent he’s had at the position yet. Expect Godwin to continue to perform like a WR1 in 2020.
It’s tough to find a natural replacement for the James White role in a Brady-led offense. The runnng back position has been one of Brady’s most reliable outlets in his career, accounting for 26% of his targets over the past three years. In 2018, White was the most targeted player in New England, with 123 targets. Current Tampa Bay RB Ronald Jones made some big strides in this department last year, totaling 31 receptions for 309 yards. Jones isn’t the most natural pass-catcher, though, and he was benched multiple times for poor pass protection — something I can’t imagine the Buccaneers want to see beside their new (but aging) investment. I expect the Bucs to search for additional help in the backfield, either through draft or free agency.
PHILIP RIVERS SIGNS WITH THE INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
After watching Jacoby Brissett struggle down the stretch in 2019, the Indianapolis Colts signed QB Philip Rivers to lead their team.
In what we can call a “down” year, Rivers still managed to throw for 4,615 yards in 2019 — the third highest total in his 16-year career with the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers. His touchdowns, on the other hand, regressed to his fewest amount since 2008. His 23:20 TD/INT ratio was easily the worst of his career, along with his 3.9% touchdown percentage. Part of the blame falls on the Chargers’ 29th ranked offensive line (per PFF), which struggled to keep Rivers upright. Only one quarterback (Winston) threw interceptions at a higher clip when under pressure in 2019. Rivers now joins a Colts team that featured the #3-ranked offensive line. According to NextGen stats, Brissett had the second-most time to throw the ball in the NFL. In comparison, Rivers was bottom 5 in the same category. When afforded time, Rivers can still deliver the ball efficiently and accurately. He shows a fearless trust in his arm that the Colts have been sorely missing.
Rivers had a great supporting cast with the Chargers, something that cannot be as easily said for Indianapolis. Coming off an injury-plagued 2019, Colts top WR T.Y. Hilton will have the opportunity to bounce back in a big way. Rivers has a tendency to funnel targets to his #1 receiver. Chargers WR Keenan Allen averaged 73 more targets than any other receiver over the past three years, accounting for a 26% target share over that period. If Hilton can get past the health issues that have plagued him over the latter part of his career, he could see a similar target share with an opportunity to finish as a WR2.
The depth behind Hilton is questionable at best. Zach Pascal and Parris Campbell headline a group of relatively unknown and unproven players — a clear downgrade from the weapons Rivers had in Los Angeles. In 2019, Chargers tight end Hunter Henry accounted for 21% of Rivers’ touchdowns (and a respectable 12% target share). He played in only 12 games and finished as the Chargers’ third-leading receiver. This bodes well for Colts tight end Jack Doyle, who has proven to be a sturdy and reliable option during his time in Indy.
The rest of Rivers’ production was going towards the running backs, who have accounted for a massive 26% market share over the past three years. Some will hope that Colts RB Marlon Mack will be the main beneficiary, but RB Nyheim Hines has a sneaky chance to become fantasy relevant. The Colts’ speedy pass-catching back has 139 targets over the past two seasons and profiles similarly to Chargers RB Austin Ekeler. The presence of Rivers should help maintain Mack’s RB2 value, but Hines could end up as an RB3 with massive upside.
Rivers also gets to reconnect with head coach Frank Reich, who spent three seasons with the Chargers before taking the HC position with the Colts. Reich showed a tendency to run the ball and play the clock in 2019, but it was only a year ago that he helped Andrew Luck throw for 4,593 yards and 38 touchdowns at a 67% completion rate — arguably Luck’s best season as a pro. I don’t expect Reich to revert to a pass-heavy attack, especially with one of the best offensive lines in football. It will be tough to see Rivers match his average of 558 attempts over the past three seasons. I do expect to see a more efficient Philip Rivers, though, and I feel optimistic about his chances of performing like a high-end QB2.
Even though there is a chance he returns in 2021 with an option in his contract, I would not invest in Rivers for anything past 2020. The Colts have been connected to many QBs in the draft and, at 38 years old, Rivers feels like a bridge quarterback at best.
Cory Pereira/@FF_Guitarist