With the college football season approaching being half way through for most teams, now is the perfect time to start getting a feel for incoming NFL rookies. With all things there are a lot of scenarios that are yet to play out, and with each unfolding scenario will result in a value adjustment for the incoming rookies.
Before jumping into this four round mock draft First I want to thank Cody Carpentier for setting this up and everyone who was willing to spend their valuable time to complete this. So Akash, Ray Ray, Steve, Jaylan, Edward, Andrew, Ryan, Casey, Nick and Lukas, thank you.
Now without further ado, lets dive in.
There were six, that’s right SIX quarterbacks selected in Round 1; Spencer Rattler, Sam Howell, Malik Willis, Carson Strong, Kedon Slovis and Matt Corral. It goes without saying that we won’t see over half of these players actually selected in an actual rookie draft.
The two values I see here are Willis and Corral, two mobile quarterbacks that offer a rushing floor and have strong passing mechanics. Both Rattler and Howell have left the door wide open for Willis or Corral to sneak into the top quarterback position, which has been a trend in this class.
The strongest and most consistent position of the class has bee the wide receivers. Boasting three blue chip prospects in my mind. Only two of which however were drafted in the first, Treylon Burks and Garrett Wilson, different style of players but elite both in their own right. Burks offers the size, athleticism and production you had come to expect in the mid 2010’s. Wilson offers a bit more of the recent style of wide receiver a smaller frame but win in a variety of style not just relying upon his speed.
The other first round wide receiver drafted was Wilson’s counterpart, Chris Olave. Olave, figures in my mind, to be one of the most disputed player with the highest disparity of positional ranking this year. Olave opted out of declaring for the 2021 draft class to return his senior year, a move that looks to prove costly to his draft capital. When players come back for their senior year it is a near auto fade for me unless we see a Devonta Smith or Najee Harris type ascension. Coming back a year older to play against younger competition and not absolutely dominate raises a plethora of red flags for me; Olave profiles as the sterotypical Ohio St. wide reciever.
The running backs of this class has been a weak spot and there are no secrets about it. Breece Hall and Isaiah Spiller are both firmly entrenched as the top running backs of the class. Through six weeks they currently have a dominator rating of 37.61-percent for Hall and 26.64-percent for Spiller this year. The third running back drafted in the first round was Zach Charbonett, a player who transferred to avoid the Harbaugh Blip and has had a resurgence at his new home at UCLA. While the first round was littered with quarter backs this draft, the most draft position come draft time figures to be wide receiver.
The second round was littered with values most notably Drake London, David Bell and Kenneth Walker III. London has had a complete resurgence this year dominating all levels of the field and showing off some yards after the catch ability.
Drake London is playing himself into NFL day 2 draft capital and on first round fantasy draft boards. David Bell finding his way out of the first round was a shock to me as he is my wide receiver two currently in this class. Kenneth Walker is currently leading college football with 913 rushing yards on the back. Walker III transferred from Wake Forrest last year and that move has paid off for his draft day potential. The third running back spot in this class has been left vacant for half of the college football season, but I feel comfortable moving Walker III into that position.
The rest of the picks in this round will more than likely remain in the second round come rookie draft season. Kyren Williams, Jahan Dotson, John Metchie and Justyn Ross are the names that have an outside possibility to move into the first round of rookie drafts.
The second round was full of players who are performing at an average level but have name recognition, the third round is chalk full of players who have been performing well but lack the name recognition. The names that are likely to elevate out of this round are; Tyler Goodson, Jalen Wydermyer, Ainias Smith, Zamir White, Wan’Dale Robinson, Emory Jones and Desmond Ridder.
Tyler Goodson currently occupies 35.69-percent of the entire offensive yardage of Iowa with a 2022 College Dominator of 33.63-percent. Goodson will get a comparison to Tony Pollard, which may end up being eerily accurate. Jalen Wydermyer is the top tight end of this class and holding that title boosts his value in fantasy football
Ainias Smith is having a great junior year holding a college dominator of 31.62-percent this year and getting used in the special teams department which bodes well for his open field abilities. In true Georgia fashion, Zamir White is splitting time other running backs but has a five yards per carry rate right now. With this running back class having a lower bar for being good, White may slide by despite not being a pass catching threat.
Wan’Dale Robinson transferred from Nebraska to Kentucky and on his first year with a new team he has a season College Dominator 40.39-percent. A threat on the ground and through the air his versatility will have fantasy managers excited for what his ceiling could be. Jones’ first year as the Florida starter has been mostly a success and since he offers a rushing upside could see himself as a second round fantasy draft pick. Desmond Ridder has been having a good year but the same problems persist, inconsistency.
There are two picks here that I believe have the potential to have an estimated value of nearly two rounds, and those are Joseph Ngata and Trey McBride. The Clemson Tigers are struggling this year on offense however, Ngata currently accounts for 37.66-percent of the receiving yards. A player with size who missed most of the 2020 season due to injury could end up being a candidate for the ‘steal of the draft’ for an NFL franchise and your fantasy team.
Trey McBride currently accounts for 42.68-percent of the receiving yards, as a tight end. That alone is going to elevate him into the second round, then when you see him play you recognize his ability to not only block but be an effective pass catcher as well. McBride truly is the only tight end prospect that can and will push Wydermyer for the top tight end spot. He also has some wheels for a big fella.
A few honorable mentions on this round that I believe will likely see an increase in value as the season grows on.
Tyler Allgeier is having a breakout season at BYU posting a 33.66-percent College Dominator this year. Inexperience at the position will lead to draft capital that is outside the threshold but his size and speed will land him as a draft day sleeper.
Zay Flowers was on his way to a big season but then the starting quarterback ended up missing the remainder of the year with an injury. Destroying any big year Flowers was hoping for, likely returning for another year Flowers could be a flier later in fantasy drafts.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. out of Kentucky is having another excellent year, nearly surpassing his season total last year in two less games. Rodriguez Jr. currently has a 33.87-percent College Dominator this year. Lacking much pass catching on his profile he has the size and production alone to be draft in the second or third round of fantasy drafts.
Jake Haener has been a popular name ever since his overtime heroics. Haener is having an exciting year and has an outside chance at making a push for NFL first round draft capital.
Thank you for giving this your attention, it means a lot to us to take time out of your day and to spend it here with BreakoutFinder. You can follow me on Twitter @TheFFSandman.