5 Favorite july buys
We all have our favorite players every year. The most exciting and rewarding part about fantasy football is finding those hills, taking a stand, and having it pay off big.
With August around the corner and your very important home league drafts looming, I have highlighted five players that I’m more than happy to select at their current ADP (Average Draft Position), most of whom I suspect will steadily rise as we get deeper into the month. The names below can be had in rounds 9-10, or later. ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.
WR Curtis Samuel, CAR (118.6): Like any parent, you’re never going to choose between your kids. There’s no such thing as favorites; you love each of them equally. I can’t talk about Samuel without mentioning my affinity for D.J. Moore, another good football player.
Wide receiver evaluation wizard and #ReceptionPerception CEO Matt Harmon loves Samuel’s prospects heading into the 2019 campaign (he even delicately drops a Stefon Diggs comparison). He points out Samuel’s success rates versus various coverages and his ability to win in the air. The tape is obviously there, and the 89th-percentile SPARQ-x score does nothing but sweeten the deal. Panthers beat writers seem to be in lockstep with Harmon, ticketing Samuel — not Moore — as Carolina’s breakout wide receiver this season. I’m very willing to click the button for both of them, but Samuel remains my more drafted player just given the value and current ADP gap. Oh, most importantly, the #BreakoutBoyz are onboard:
Hopefully you already own Curtis Samuel EVERYWHERE.
BIG. THINGS. AHEAD. pic.twitter.com/aZINLzCRar
— THE BREAKOUT FINDER (@breakout_finder) June 9, 2019
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (129.2): It should go without saying that the Packers WR2 spot has been been profitable in recent history. Aaron Rodgers is an elevator of talent, and more than capable of supporting at least two pass-catchers given his own abilities. Outside of Davante Adams, locked-and-loaded as Rodgers’ voluminous WR1, the seats remain open. I can’t help but keep coming back to Valdes-Scantling, especially at his cost. With Geronimo Allison set to work out of the slot almost exclusively this season (which is also hard to ignore of course), the second-year breakout could be coming for the former South Florida Bull. At 6-4, 206-pounds and a 71st-percentile SPARQ-x score, Valdes-Scantling draws a favorable Tyrell Williams comparison per Player Profiler. 4.37 speed is arguably the most important element to his game, ushering him into that field-stretcher role opposite Adams. Valdes-Scantling’s 15.3 yards per reception was behind only Courtland Sutton (16.8) among rookie wide receivers last season, and just outside the top 15 overall. Raw athleticism and statistics aside, earning Rodgers’ attention and trust are the first steps for any wide out lining up in Lambeau. We’re well on our way in that regard, too:
“There’s a big difference between a guy who can time fast and play fast. And playing fast is where the confidence comes.”@89JonesNTAF catches up with @AaronRodgers12 who has been impressed with one WR in particular 👇📺: @gmfb pic.twitter.com/AU016J6xQ2— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) July 25, 2019
RB Damien Harris, NE (132.8): Harris was selected in the third-round this past spring, only a year after Bill Belichick shocked the timeline and opted to select a running back in Sony Michel in the top-32 the year prior (1.31). Michel looked particularly strong in the postseason (71-336-6, averaging 4.73 yards per tote), and provides a do-it-all skill set that New England values (although the pass game out of the backfield will run through James White until further notice).
The problem with Michel, however, is the injury history — the knee, notably. The injuries, unfortunately, have landed Michel on the PUP to start camp. This allows the window to stay open for Harris, who could offer that same well-rounded skill set as Michel.
I may be biased, as Harris was my RB1 in this year’s draft class, but there’s a real chance that he gets a shot at volume in camp and runs away with things. He’s a “flier” around the 11th round currently. Have we not learned our lesson about drafting Patriots running backs yet? The cheap man always wins. In a largely underwhelming group, especially athletically, Harris did everything well enough to stay at the top throughout the process for me. Sitting at 5-10, 216-pounds, he looks like a three-down option. His 77th-percentile Burst Score per Player Profiler solidifies things.
RB Justice Hill, BAL (165.4): This year’s running back class, as we know, was not the most athletically-gifted group. Hill was one of the exceptions, however. A pleasant surprise. 4.4 wheels to go along with a 40-inch vertical and a 130-inch broad jump woke most of us up; the latter two scores are good enough for a 95th-percentile Burst Score. During his three years at Oklahoma State, he logged a notable 49 receptions. We know he can catch, and that’s important moving forward.
Hill lands in one of the better situations on a run-heavy Baltimore team. The idea, and hope for Ravens fans and fantasy owners alike, is that second-year signal-caller Lamar Jackson can dial in the accuracy and take a very important leap forward as a passer. Even if that does play out in a positive manner, the Ravens will still lean on the run for obvious reasons (Jackson set the quarterback rushing record with 147 attempts and didn’t officially start until Week 11).
Hill’s only competition is 30-year old Mark Ingram. While the ex-Saint can still play, there isn’t necessarily any exciting upside to his game. Given the aforementioned volume that we can find on the ground in Baltimore, coupled with Hill’s obvious pass-catching capabilities alone, if you stumble on him around his current ADP, immediately and joyfully click the button and keep it moving.
QB Andy Dalton, CIN (203.3): There’s nothing sexy about trotting out Dalton, but it just works for fantasy purposes. He exploded back in 2013 for 4,296 yards and 33 scores. He was on a similar 4,200 yard, 34-touchdown track last season when annually-underrated stud receiver A.J. Green was lost due to injury. Legendary fantasy footballer Shawn Siegele is buying Dalton, and for good reasons (hit that link).
High-level, there’s really not much justification that’s needed for a quarterback coming off the board in nearly the 17th round of drafts. Generally speaking, I wait on quarterbacks. Most people do; you should, too. I expect him to outplay that draft slot. Green is overlooked in drafts but remains one of the league’s best at his position. Rising star Tyler Boyd is the proud owner of a new contract, coming off his 2018 breakout campaign.
In addition, Tyler Eifert is going to give it another go. Entering his age-29 season, the tight end and quarterback’s connection has been evident when the former is available. Lastly, there was much deserved hype around Joe Mixon‘s 2019 season. It should still be there, as the talent remains, but the Bengals’ offensive line has lost two starters, so we’d be wise to temper somewhat. Regardless, as Siegele points out, Cincinnati is one of only four teams in the NFL that boasts a true, game-breaking trio on offense (two elite receivers and a top-tier running back). Dalton’s a steal at his current ADP given the weapons at his disposal, and none of this even takes into account the unknown impact of new, rookie head coach (and Sean McVay disciple) Zac Taylor. The pieces are in place to roll out and mimic the potent Rams attack.