Winning a 1,200-team fantasy football league will require rostering the correct players, and this year O.J. Howard is going to be one of those players. Landing him in the fifth or sixth round of the Scott Fish Bowl represented a tremendous value selection. Yet those who reached for him earlier to ensure potential league-winning tight end production should remain optimistic. Here is why I am banging the table for Howard at pick 3.10 in the Commander Shepard division draft.
Game Theory
SFB8 saw the debut of full-point PPR scoring and full point-per-first down scoring for tight ends. This tweak launched Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Zach Ertz to the top of the scoring leader boards. This year’s addition of five-point bonuses for every 50 yards rushing and/or receiving yards was added to neutralize that advantage. Tight ends hit 50 receiving yards less often than wide receivers, and less often than running backs hit 50 rushing yards, which can hurt their overall value. The position still matters if you can score the right players — and at 3.10, I couldn’t risk one of my competitors ensuring Howard’s selection by taking him at 4.01 or 4.02.
Insane Efficiency
What separates Howard from the pack as a potential SFB9 league winner is his proven NFL-level efficiency. He led the tight end position with 11.1 and 11.8 yards per target in his first two seasons. It’s the reason he only fell below 50 receiving yards two times in 10 games played in 2018. Had he stayed healthy and continued to produce, he would likely already be lumped into the elite fantasy TE tier. And looking ahead there is no definitive reason to believe his role as a downfield threat will change entering 2019.
Opportunity
The other reason to be high on Howard in this format is his situation. Playing on a team with 229 vacated targets from 2018 will ensure that he smashes his career high of 48 targets. His current target competition outside of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson, two players that — even if given a target bump — have yet to show any year-to-year efficiency at the pro level. It’s also not inconceivable that Howard doubles his 2018 target share to 87 as a focal point of this new offense. Even Heath Miller saw 98 targets in his best season under Bruce Arians in Pittsburgh. So there’s no credence to the narrative that Arians won’t be a good thing for Howard’s fantasy production.
Review
Passing on O.J. Howard in the Scott Fish Bowl ensures belief that last year’s top three fantasy tight ends don’t change. That’s a risky proposition for a position that’s been so injury prone. I’m betting on Howard. I’m betting on proven production and his sticky efficiency carrying over into 2019. The combination of talent, opportunity, situation and league scoring system will make him a value no matter where he is selected.