Vacancy Report: ACC Running Backs

Opportunity matters in fantasy football. It goes without saying that higher production is closely tied to a player’s opportunity. The Vacancy Report sheds light on open opportunities that help project the next breakout. In this series, I’ll give context to situations where a prospect can gain market share on his way towards becoming a Sunday contributor. With apologies to Lyn-J Dixon, let’s take a look at the ACC.

Florida State

Cam Akers enters the NFL Draft as the Seminoles’ sixth all-time leading rusher and leaves behind 63% of the team’s 2019 rushing yard share. Also leaving Florida State is head coach Willie Taggart, who was fired in November. New head coach Mike Norvell inherits the ACC’s largest backfield vacancy. He has quickly added five players to the roster to supplment the only two remaining scholarship running backs on the roster, Khalan Laborn and Anthony Grant. For devy running back purposes, the Norvell hire has huge potential. He spent four successful seasons at Memphis, heavily involving backs in the passing game.

As the blue chipper and 247Sports’ top-rated 2017 all-purpose running back, Laborn should get the first chance in 2020 as FSU’s RB1. After two knee surgeries, though, the devy community has gone quiet on Laborn, precisely at the time he has an opportunity to hit the 45% market share breakout threshold for juniors. In 2019, Laborn accounted for 16% of FSU’s rushing yardage and flashed the ability to catch passes out of the backfield. Even if a committee approach is likely to fill the Akers void under Norvell, we should be conscious of any positive spring news for Laborn.

If the positive news never comes, 4-star Texas A&M transfer, Jashaun Corbin could be the next man up. Corbin will need a waiver from the NCAA in 2020.

Projecting even further into the future, it is time to file away another 4-star recruit, Lawrance Toafili. The Florida native committed to FSU early with Taggart at the helm. After an official visit with Norvell, he formally ended his recruitment while also receiving notable offers from Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, and 14 other schools.

Boston College

On average, A.J. Dillon put up 124 yards rushing per game for the past three seasons at Boston College. Dillon leaves behind a legacy at BC, and one of the best offensive lines in the country, returning four starters. Thankfully for head coach Jeff Hafley and college fantasy football gamers, Dillon also leaves behind a clear heir in David Bailey. The junior should get every opportunity in 2020, after accounting for 17% of the total offense last season while compiling nearly 1,000 scrimmage yards in mop-up duties. For devy purposes, though, it is fair to avoid any investment here. Even Dillon, the Eagles’ career leading rusher, is projecting to the NFL as a backup who will need to work into a starting role.

Syracuse

Abdul Adams‘ time has come. After receiving offers from Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma, Adams flashed as a sophomore at OU behind Rodney Anderson and Trey Sermon. With no clear path to starter duties, and a new positional coach in Oklahoma, Adams transferred to Syracuse, sat out a year, and then split backup duties in 2019 with Jarveon Howard behind Moe Neal. In 2020, Adams’ final collegiate season will begin atop the Orange pre-spring depth chart.  

The former 4-star recruit is a risk for devy, but Adams is a name to come back to for 2021 dynasty rookie drafts if he is able to take advantage of the 46% vacated market share. He is listed on the Syracuse website as 5’11” and 212 pounds. His recruiting profile is impressive enough with highlights of a supposed 4.4-second 40-yard dash, receiving potential, and the requisite size of a workhorse back.  

Miami

Cam’Ron Harris‘ 37% rushing share as a sophomore nearly qualified him as a breakout while technically backing-up Deejay Dallas. Harris is easy to project as a devy prospect whose stock is about to rise significantly. Dallas is heading to the NFL, vacating a 45% rushing share, and The U also lost 5-star recruit Lorenzo Lingard to Florida via the transfer portal. The Hurricanes’ backfield now belongs to Rivals’ 2018 RB6, and Harris is ready to further build upon his 113 attempts and 16 pass receptions from 2019.  

Equally as exciting as Harris’ 2020 outlook for devy are two local 4-star backs from Miami’s 2020 recruiting class: Jaylan Knighton and Don Chaney Jr. One of these two players will ascend the depth chart and become Harris’ backup before the close of the year — and take over lead back duties as early as 2021 if Harris opts to go pro. Chaney is currently recovering from a January shoulder surgery, giving the spring opportunity to Knighton, who comes in as the RB6 in Rivals’ 2020 all-purpose ranks.

Virginia Tech

Deshawn McClease will forego his sixth season of eligibility, opening 37% of the Hokies’ rushing market share. Khalil Herbert, a fifth-year senior, projects to be the 2020 starter. Herbert might be a recognizable name after leading the Kansas Jayhawks in rushing through the first four games of 2019 before he redshirted, making way for Pooka Williams. Let’s just say; it is not a good sign for devy that the Virginia Tech vacancy report has me writing about the starting running back for Kansas.

Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons’ 2019 timeshare at running back gains clarity as Cade Carney runs out of eligibility and, more notably, quarterback Jamie Newman heads to Georgia.  Carney accounted for 27% of the rushing attack and Newman added a sizable 25%. Kenneth Walker III will be the immediate beneficiary after recording a 25% rushing yardage share as a freshman. Walker was good enough to earn PFF’s 2019 All-Freshman 3rd team honors. He should have no trouble growing his share of the workload. But as a 3-star prospect, he will need to prove his worth amongst the devy community before entering the NFL.

Pittsburgh

A.J. Davis will once again lead the Panthers after recording 530 rushing yards in 2019, which accounted for 34% of Pitt’s total rushing yardage. The only difference for 2020 is V’Lique Carter‘s vacated 16% share after Carter entered the transfer portal. Davis will need to take over nearly all of Carter’s opportunities to highlight why he received 25 Power 5 offers as ESPN’s RB14 in the 2017 recruiting class. It feels unlikely that Davis will break out as a senior.

North Carolina

Michael Carter and Javonte Williams will continue to dominate touches for the Tarheels after accounting for 79% of the team’s rushing share in 2019. Thirteen percent of the Tar Heels’ market share yardage will be available in 2020 with Antonio Williams wrapping up his college career.  

Carter finished fifth in the ACC in rushing as a junior in 2019. He boasts a dynamic profile with 57 receptions through three seasons and success as a kick returner. 247Sports’ all-purpose RB6 of the 2017 class should be an early, 2nd-round dynasty pick in 2021.  

Williams was a less-heralded recruit, but at a younger age has already had similar success to Carter. As a sophomore, he finished 7th in the ACC in rushing and was 4th in rushes of 10+ yards. Williams has additionally shown himself as a capable pass catcher. For fantasy purposes, Williams’ profile after a near-2019 breakout is beginning to project towards potential RB2-level production in the NFL.

Virginia

Quarterback Bryce Perkins enters the NFL draft after accounting for 45% of the Cavaliers’ rushing yardage in 2019. UVA’s offense will likely plug in Brennan Armstrong, another dual-threat passer. Three-star junior Wayne Taulapapa now finds himself as the only member of the backfield to have logged more than 21 career collegiate rushing attempts. Devy players should look elsewhere for future workhorse backs.