The Carolina Panthers have a bright future. Their offense is stocked with young, athletic play makers soaked in upside. Identifying the best fantasy options is usually an easy feat, but loaded teams like this can sometimes be tricky. And no situation is more tricky than deciding between D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. 

Moore to Come

     Moore is one of the flagship, sure-fire analytics profiles. In his senior season at Maryland, he racked up 1,033 yards and eight scores on 80 catches. In the context of an anemic Terrapins offense, Moore commanded a 53 percent market share that season. That figure is No. 16 all-time in the Breakout Finder database. 

     In addition to mind-bending production, Moore has the athleticism to back it up. At 6-foot, 210 pounds, he blazed a 4.42 at the NFL Combine for an 89th percentile Speed Score, via Player Profiler. His speed and weight combo suggests that he’s a prolific receiver after the catch, which is something he flashed in his rookie season with the Panthers. Yet Moore only commanded just 82 total targets in 2018, which ranked outside the top-40 for wide receivers. Despite the lack of elite volume, he still managed to finish No. 13 in yards after the catch with 406. His ability to immediately translate his athleticism into NFL production is promising for his future in the league. 

The Case for Samuel

     At the opposite end of the spectrum, we have Samuel. His 2018 production was almost entirely air yards-based, with only 92 of his 494 yards coming after the catch. This is because the Panthers put Samuel in high-leverage situations to utilize his 4.31 wheels, which was akin to how the Buckeyes deployed him.

     Even dating back to his college days, Samuel was used as a dynamic splash-play specialist. This is backed up by his dynamic score of 133.4, No. 3 all-time in the Breakout Finder database. What is even more impressive is that he was able to shine in an offense that included Michael Thomas and Ezekiel Elliott. Playing alongside those high draft selections gave Samuel a No. 6 all-time teammate score of 184.6.

     Clearly, we are dealing with two of the most impressive players as far as Breakout Finder metrics are concerned. But which receiver is destined to fire in 2019?

Identifying the Right Panther

     After the Panthers gave up on Devin Funchess in Week 11, both Moore and Samuel commanded at least 80 percent of the snaps from Weeks 12-16. Moore had the most consistent target share, seeing at least seven looks in all but one game, for a total of 35. Meanwhile, Samuel saw 38 targets over that span. His usage was sporadic, though, as he saw double-digit targets in two games and under five in two as well.

     The key to this puzzle is Cam Newton. Newton missed the final two games of 2018 with a shoulder injury, meaning Samuel’s 13-target game in Week 16 came with Taylor Heinicke at the helm. We should discount that game and focus on the Newton sample from Weeks 12-15, in which Moore was favored in targets 28 to Samuel’s 25. These target shares are close enough to assume that both players can thrive in 2019.

     Moore should see more targets, but Samuel will see higher-value targets in deeper areas of the field. Volume is always key in fantasy football, and Moore’s first-round draft capital and 2018 production indicate that he will get the lion’s share. But Samuel has shown the ability to produce on limited looks while surrounded by elite teammates dating back to his college days. Perhaps fantasy gamers should be taking the cheaper player and bank on the advanced metrics.